Thursday, October 6, 2011

10-07-2011 outlook

Clearly I have been off in my outlooks the past 3 days (since we bottomed Monday).  So I am examining the data to see if dominance has shifted to longer cycles and it appears that may be the case.   We should have a clearer picture in the next few days.  For now - I am going with that assumption and made some adjustments to reflect that.

So we may see some additional upside next few days if my adjustments prove out.  I continues to hold some longs, but have now sold covered calls on them.  Let's me collect the dividends and generate additional cash flow while offering some downside insurance.

Here is the SPX swing trade cycles:

 Gl traders.  Do your own analysis.


  1. I admit to sometimes being an emotional trader, but I can't help but expect more upside here. It's been quite a while hasn't it? since the last nonsensical rally? Mid 2010, that's the last time the bears (I was one of them) stared in disbelief at the insane ferocity of a bear market rally.

  2. Keystone advises watching the SOX which is presently @ 355.17. It needs to take out 359.6 to keep the bulls in full run mode.
    Keystone though feels the S&P will get stopped in the 1200'ish level.

    Jobs report is magically fine today.

    Let's see what happens.

  3. The ^SOX broke above 359.6 in the am, but then fell back.
    Now as of 3:30pm (EST), it is back above 359.6.
    Perhaps a strong finish today.

  4. Doctrader -

    Bipolar market - close red, green, no red. Hehehe

  5. Morla -

    To avoid emotional trades I use chats to determine and set limit orders a lot and try not to look too often. Doesn't always work, but it cuts down on the emotional moves. Yep, set the order and then find something else to do for a couple of hours before you check....

  6. Inlet,

    What I found interesting about ^SOX is that in the morning, once it got to 360'ish range, the markets quickly sold off.

    In the afternoon, the markets recovered and around 3:30pm, ^SOX was again about 360'ish, so I wrote the above post thinking the markets could rally into the close. No sooner did I post, the markets were already selling off again.

    I will have to see if Keystone comments on it.

    SVM continues to do well & the chart looks like it could go further, so I am holding. However, don't want to be too piggy.

  7. Hi Inlet, I know this is cooky but can't help but sharing....maybe with Shadow's next leg down prediction and RAJ prediction of an Oct flash crash could it coincide????

  8. c88-

    Since crashes are rare events I consider the odds long when it comes to predicting one - so I refain from trying. But, for your information I saw one prediction for Oct 24-25 as a crash date.