Wednesday, October 5, 2011

10-05-2011 outlook

I had opined the day would be flat Tuesday trading in a range below 1100 after an initial drop.  For most of the day that was the case, but the last hour we got an impressive rally and closed green.  Two days in a row that the latter part of the day behaved unexpectedly.

Read a couple of blogs and it seems most think we have set a bottom.  That may be true, but then again we may retest the low set Tuesday.  I am inclines to think that is a likely scenario and if we do retest a bottom today it would be an opportune time to consider buying the dip.  So my outlook is we start off flat, dip to test the low and then begin an advance.

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.  It may be time to cautiously buy for a 4 day or so swing trade.  Do your own analysis.


  1. Phil Davis blocked his article for 48 hours, so I could only read the beginning. He feels that we are bouncing off of lower trend lines. However, the trend lines (channel) for all of the indices are down. So, perhaps a few day bounce like you have pointed out. Then down again.
    I found Kliguy on the TF Metals Report site. He also pointed out that the miners are near lower trend lines and thus they could bounce. However, those trend lines (channel) are falling too.
    Unless Europe gets fixed and a Trillion or more dollars find their way into the market, things look bad to me.

  2. Day traded GLW for about 3.75% gain.

  3. I'm green with my SVM calls.
    Might close them today & prepare to go short with something.
    I'm just not sure if we are going to get 3 or 4 up days.
    The volume is lousy and the floor can cave in anytime.

  4. I closed my SPY longs, opened yesterday at the end.
    Not a big gain but I distruts of low volume.

    What kind of set up would you watch to get short?

  5. When the DOW makes it back to 11,000-11,100 ...start looking for the exit door again.

  6. Jekyll -

    couple of points - given the strength of the bounce I believe it is reasonable to expect it to be short lived. Second point - the bounce was due to short cycles which should have topped today.

    Still - shorting here is risky as the longer 11.2TD cycle should bottom late Friday (or early Monday) and turn up (along with the 5.6TD cycle). If I am reading the cycles correctly then going long frid close (Monday open) may be a better play.

  7. I decided to hold my SVM calls.
    Seems to me that various charts show that there is still room for some upside.
    I read some of the messages from the SKF board. There seems to be some agreement there that tomorrow will be an up day. Some feel that Friday will be down.
    Guess we will find out soon enough.

  8. I'm curious to see how closely the market will correlate with silver. Maund has me sold on large upside potential in the intermediate term for silver..

    Other than a GRZZX core I don't tinker with I'm only playing in the mining sector at this moment, but Daneric calling for an S&P rally into 2012 sure does sound crazy enough coming from him that it just might happen. The guy made a slew of bad top calls but he sure did nail that 2009 bottom..