Monday, October 3, 2011

10-04-2011 outlook

My outlook (some upside morning, pull back mid day) was looking good.  Then the afternoon happened.  Never got the bounce I thought we might.  Tomorrow morning it looks like the down side should continue at least thru mid day. 

The shorter cycles (11.2TD, 5.6TD, 2.8TD) continue to dominate the market movements.  The 2.8TD should bottom mid day tomorrow.  The 11.2TD and 5.6TD cycles are down all day.  So I expect lows early then maybe we settle in a range under 1100 for the rest of the day?

Here is the SPX swing trading cycles:

GL traders.  I would not attempt to buy the dip tomorrow - late Wednesday early Thursday - maybe?  


  1. Some notes:

    Phil Davis feels if we don't bounce today, S&P could fall to 1072.

    Keystone Speculator notes that ^DJU failed 424. The next line in the sand is 418. Markets would sell off quickly if 418 breaks.

    Inlet, hopefully these up cycles will kick in soon. But, I suspect without some type of QE3 announcement, we might only go up a couple days before selling resumes.

    Let's hear what Ben has to say.

  2. Doctrader - the 5.6TD and 11.2TD cycles should bottom tomorrow by the close (maybe as soon as mid day). These seem to be the cycles moving the market currently.

    Also, I believe Greece gets a new tranche of debt by Thursday. That should take Greece off the front page for a while. Then we start to get earnings. Outlooks will probably matter more than actual earnings.

    T-Theory has the market bottoming by end of the week (which aligns with my monthly outlook). So I expect by end of the week we will have seen a short term bottom.

  3. Needless to say ^DJU lost 418.
    Hopefully a bounce soon.

  4. Doctrader -

    So far playing out as expected today - down early and then range trading.

  5. S&P hit 1074.77 which is pretty close to Phil's note of 1072.
    Maybe that will be the low for awhile.

  6. Picked up some SSRI, Maund thinks the longs have been sufficiently decimated and his argument is compelling.

  7. Silver longs I mean :)

  8. Morla - GL. Looks like the loan tranche in Greece may be delayed as they figure out how to screw bond/debt holders more.

  9. Doctrader -

    I think I may have the cycles off by a day. The low today may be the low I was expecting tomorrow. We'll see.

  10. Inlet RAJ had he turn 10/3 + or -. Now I dont' subscribe but check his public blog out occasionally and he is calling for a flash crash in October. Only subscribers get to see the date. Will be interesting to see if we can catch that. Should be a big money maker if short. Something tells me it happens before 10/19.

  11. c88 - I glance at Raj's site maybe once a week. The thing about predicting crashes is those are rare events and trying to predict an unexpected and sudden move is a fool's task. Your chances of being right are very low.

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