Sunday, October 2, 2011

10-03-2011 outlook

Friday was red as expected.    The 5.6TD  cycle bottomed near the close it appears and the 2.8TD cycle topped.  So we have the 2.8TD cycle down.  The 22TD cycle is near a top (by Thursday?). The 11.2TD cycle is down. 

So we have the 34TD cycle, the 5.6TD cycle,  20TD cycle is up.  The 2.8TD cycle and 11.2TD cycle is down.   So we get largely offsetting forces.  But, I expect we open up, pullback mid day as the 2.8TD cycle bottoms and then moves up into the close and closes the day green. So a volatile day with a modest up move is my best guess.

Here is the SPX swing cycles: 

GL traders.  Be careful as the market is volatile and can turn on a dime.


  1. Inlet wanted to share from Michael Parness (Waxie) who is a really accurate forecaster :

    There should be a very large reversal this week, particularly if we get a move below 1100 early in the week on the S & P. If so, I'm liking last quarters biggest losers, outside the banks, even though they could pop as well, I just don't want to hold those things overnight regardless. Watch 1080 if we get that drawdown for potential reversal point. On short side I like AMZN and other momo stocks on any drawdown. Trend is for us to get some upside on the worst of the worst from last quarter, so keep an eye on Ags and Industrials, they should be higher by week end...

  2. Looking pretty ugly this afternoon, but the Utilities (^DJU) still above 424. Will they hang on??
    Hopefully this is the last big flush day for awhile. Time will tell.

  3. Mouth - looks like we may get 1080...

    Doctrader - had expected some sort of bounce the last hour. Did not get it..,

  4. Inlet,
    The utilities (^DJU) fell below 424 in the final minutes of trading. Now all of the parameters I follow have failed.
    The futures need to be green tomorrow so we can gap up.
    I heard that Ben is talking tomorrrow. Maybe he will give a hint of QE3. Keystone Speculator, based upon their calculations, indicated that we are now in Deflation. If true, Ben will have to do something.
    Guess we will find out soon enough.

  5. Doctrader - the commodities (oil, metals, ags, etc) smell of deflation. Droke's weekend article addressed this.

    From my reading this is to be expected as we enter the cyclic winter.

  6. Don't things usually tank after Bernanke opens his mouth? Oh but I jest, Banks sure took a beating today.. I hope it's an impending Greek default, anything else that could move the banks like that is probably even worse. Less skin in the game now than usual, some GRZZX and GORO and a majority of cash, so I'd love to see Greece get this over with.

  7. Morla - Greece gets a new tranche of loans Thursday I believe. Takes that off the table for a while.

    Looking for a short term low Wed afternoon/Thur morning. Might be a good time for a swing trade (3-4 fays) in your favorite stock with some of that cash.