Saturday, May 14, 2011

comments and outlook for week of 05-16-2011

The week just finished was much as projected.  My expectations for the coming week is that the 22TD cycle (and other shorter cycles will bottom mid week - as early as Tue close, but more likely sometime Wed).  So I expect a hard push down Mon and Tue to a low.  I have a target of the 1300-1310 as a low.

Take a look:

Taking a longer view, you need to be very aware we are in a period of time that could be a pivot for a substantial pullback.  The 20 week (Wall cycle) should top the week of May 21.  Also we are at a point where the down leg of the 1 year cycle should start having dominant influence.  So any bounce off the bottom next week is apt to be muted and short lived.

I collected some Fibonacci ratios going back to the early 1980s to highlight the potential targets.  It is my opinion that we see a substantial pullback into July starting as soon as next week or the week of 05-23.  Looking at cycle amplitudes for the 1 year and 20 week (Wall) cycles I believe the downside target is around 1100 by sometime in July.    How does this mesh with the Fibonaccis?  Here is a table:


The Fibs downside target that best fits my projections is 1095.  If I am wrong and the market continues up the next target is around 1443.  Here is a weekly chart of the SnP 500 showing my projections:


As you can see my target area covers the FIB 1095 projection.  As always - do your own analysis.  I like the confirmation between the cycle amplitude and FIB projections.

3 comments:

  1. No worries that I don't use stops, Inlet. My entry points, seemingly regardless of the reason I undertake them, are almost universally bad in the short term. If I were to use stops I'da been wiped out some time ago. I prefer to take small positions and hedge or pair those trades, then my natural patience can be used as a virtue.

    Over the life of my trading experience, I am fairly well in the green. I'm no goldman sachs but my odd ways work for me.

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  2. Hell I'm no Palmerjoe either, that guy has been making so many good calls it's spooky. If I ever get over my fear of his rollercoaster stocks I'll be rich, mark my words.

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  3. Morla, I am too damn old to try and keep up with Palmer Joe. Hehehehe. Did that fast trading stuff in the tech boom. Just don't need the $s bad enough to do it now. Remember trading one stock in/out 3 time after the close when earnings came out and the conference call kept ping ponging it up and down.

    Advising people to use stops is because I don't want people telling me they lost 50% because they followed my advice. You need to do what works for you. I will still advise you to do your own analysis and use stops. Hehehehe

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