Saturday, May 14, 2011

comments and outlook for week of 05-16-2011

The week just finished was much as projected.  My expectations for the coming week is that the 22TD cycle (and other shorter cycles will bottom mid week - as early as Tue close, but more likely sometime Wed).  So I expect a hard push down Mon and Tue to a low.  I have a target of the 1300-1310 as a low.

Take a look:

Taking a longer view, you need to be very aware we are in a period of time that could be a pivot for a substantial pullback.  The 20 week (Wall cycle) should top the week of May 21.  Also we are at a point where the down leg of the 1 year cycle should start having dominant influence.  So any bounce off the bottom next week is apt to be muted and short lived.

I collected some Fibonacci ratios going back to the early 1980s to highlight the potential targets.  It is my opinion that we see a substantial pullback into July starting as soon as next week or the week of 05-23.  Looking at cycle amplitudes for the 1 year and 20 week (Wall) cycles I believe the downside target is around 1100 by sometime in July.    How does this mesh with the Fibonaccis?  Here is a table:

The Fibs downside target that best fits my projections is 1095.  If I am wrong and the market continues up the next target is around 1443.  Here is a weekly chart of the SnP 500 showing my projections:

As you can see my target area covers the FIB 1095 projection.  As always - do your own analysis.  I like the confirmation between the cycle amplitude and FIB projections.


  1. No worries that I don't use stops, Inlet. My entry points, seemingly regardless of the reason I undertake them, are almost universally bad in the short term. If I were to use stops I'da been wiped out some time ago. I prefer to take small positions and hedge or pair those trades, then my natural patience can be used as a virtue.

    Over the life of my trading experience, I am fairly well in the green. I'm no goldman sachs but my odd ways work for me.

  2. Hell I'm no Palmerjoe either, that guy has been making so many good calls it's spooky. If I ever get over my fear of his rollercoaster stocks I'll be rich, mark my words.

  3. Morla, I am too damn old to try and keep up with Palmer Joe. Hehehehe. Did that fast trading stuff in the tech boom. Just don't need the $s bad enough to do it now. Remember trading one stock in/out 3 time after the close when earnings came out and the conference call kept ping ponging it up and down.

    Advising people to use stops is because I don't want people telling me they lost 50% because they followed my advice. You need to do what works for you. I will still advise you to do your own analysis and use stops. Hehehehe