Wednesday, May 4, 2011

comments and outlook 05-05-2011

Today was almost exactly as I projected.  Bottoms should have occurred for the 3 shorter cycles (11.2TD, 5.6TD and 2.8TD cycles) as the 22TD cycle has now turned down.  Since the shorter cycles turn quicker and happen over shorter periods the bias should now have turned up.  I do not expect a large up day tomorrow, but we could recover half of today's loss, so I do expect tomorrow to be biased to the upside and a green day.

Here is a visual:
GL traders.  Do your own analysis, today I bought the dip to establish a couple of positions.


  1. Today, the Russell 2000 (^RUT) fell all the way to its 50 day ema which held up nicely. The 50 day ema has provided good support since September/2010.
    It bothers me a little that the ^RUT closed below Phil Davis's support line of 835 (it closed at around 832). Still, I think if it can get above 835 and hold, I will agree with you Inlet, buy the dip.
    Thanks for all your work.

  2. Doctrader -
    Glad to see you are doing your own analysis. I can (and have been in the past) wrong. Longer term it seems to me we are going to form a "M" top with the second top coming in 6 or so trading days. Time will tell - but something to watch for.


  3. Hi inlet,

    I just wanted to make you aware of an ETF you might want to monitor. This is the carry trade ETF. It is a big picture of all the carry trades together. I know currencies aren't you thing but all you have do is look at this. This hasn't updated for today's price yet. It closed at 24.10, today it broke the 50 day moving average and 20 week moving average. All support ends at about 23.50 on both week and day charts.

    The carry trade is the liquidity source for all markets. Notice what happens when they break and can't be propped back up? Look at last crash.

    I would be very careful buying dips until this resolves.

    Good luck

    Good luck