Thursday, May 5, 2011

comments and outlook for 05-06-2011

Today didn't turn out exactly as expected!!!  Looked like we might actually turn green by the end of the day up to about 2:30pm then the overall market fell apart.  So I took a little pain, but overall not too bad.  Got into HL at a decent entry and was down on that by around 6 cents a share at the close.  Had some inverse which helped.  Had some PBR which hurt.   So, overall I lost some, but not a lot.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.  Was this a one day event or the start of something?  You have probably heard the old saw "sell in May and go away".  There is a reason for that.  The 1 year cycle bottoms early July, but it really doesn't get hard down (usually) until mid-May.  And as you know if you have looked at my longer term cycles there are a couple of other longer cycles down.  Still, I don't expect the real damage from these cycles to  kick in  for a couple of weeks.  I will be watching this situation closely.

So tomorrow looks like the 22TD cycle starts to build a bit of downside momentum.  The 11.2TD cycle and 5.6TD cycle remain up.  The 2.8TD cycle should have topped near the end of the day and turned down.  May be a bit of a coin toss tomorrow.   I believe though the odds slightly favor an up day.

Here is a visual:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis and be careful, tomorrow may be tricky

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