Tuesday, May 17, 2011

comments and outlook for 05-18-2011

Well, I got it partly right, but failed to account for the bounce in the afternoon.  We broke below 1320 (as I opined we would).  The shorter cycles showed more upside than I thought they would.

If you have studied Gann you know he based much of his cycle work on 360, 90 etc (circle segments).  He also like 1/8ths of 90.  So - 1/8th of 90 is 11.25 (11.2TD cycle) and 1/4 is 22.50 (22TD cycle - which per Gann is actually 22 1/2 days).  Considering this - as we approach the bottom  I have made minor adjustments to my cycle presentation take that 1/2 day into consideration.

So tomorrow we have the 22.5TD cycle down, the 11.25TD cycle down, the 5.65TD cycle down and the 2.8TD cycle topping.  I expect we may have a positive open and then drop.  I would not be surprised if we see 1315 or lower for the S&P 500 and under 1310 before we bottom.

Here is the SPY chart:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis and don't forget to use stops.


  1. You keep calling for down days...are you gonna get one of these right? I'm getting killed over here (yeah yeah, I should have had stops).

    You're right often enough for me to follow you, but not enough for me to make any money!

    Anyhow, I'm still holding short waiting for these cycles to bottom (tomorrow or friday?), but after today I fear I'm waiting for something that isn't coming.

  2. of14 - I guess it all depends on how you play it. My play on QID worked out for a nice profit.

    As to calling for down days I did offer the warning that we could set a bottom as early as Tues in my weekly outlook. I offer an opinion not a guarantee.

    Of course, I am never totally long or short as individual stocks can move counter trend. So in a down market I try to have one or two positions in a counter trend stock (that hopefully will go up). Or in an uptrend market I may have puts in a stock I believe will move down.

    My posts should be only one data point in your decision making. Hopefully you have other sources you check before deciding.

    I may from time to time highlight a specific equity. That should be the starting point in your decision as to whether you choose to trade the equity. You need to do your own DD (check fundamentals and recent news, or what others have to say).

  3. No worries. I take full responsibility for my trades. I just got caught holding some GOOG puts (may 520) when it whipsawed back up yesterday (I've since covered). I'm a bit over leveraged may AMZN 195 puts, but I'm holding them. Max pain is 190, and max pain on the Q's is 57, so I think we'll get a bit of a pull back tomorrow/friday, and an excuse for AMZN to navigate to max pain. If not I'll be in a bad spot.