Friday, May 13, 2011

comments and outlook for 05-16-2011

First -  I'd like to comment on the Blogger outage.  I worked with computers about 35 years.  Over that time I installed lots of changes for maintenance and new software releases.  You learn early on (if you expect to last) that your back off plan needs to be as comprehensive as your install plan.  One thing you can be sure of is that sooner or later you will have to back out maintenance or an upgrade.  It seems to me that this did not happen with Blogger maintenance and when there were problems the staff was flying by the seat of their pants trying to recover. 

This type of procedure is unacceptable!!!  Can you imagine a bank installing maintenance and not being able to process transactions for 2 days?  Or FedEx not being able to track packages because of a maintenance glitch?  I can sell them my "Attention to Detail" video lecture from a former manager.  Hehehehe.  I hope that this is a learning event for the Blogger technical support staff.  Enough of my soapbox lecture.

Today was much as expected.  Sorry I was unable to get it posted until midday today.  Now we never know what will happen over the weekend, but my analysis is news agnostic - so here goes.  Monday should be down.  How's that - no wave counts, no multiple options, no hedging of opinion.

The 22TD cycle is down and is at the point where its impact should start to dominate.  The 11.2TD cycle is also down which should support the 22TD cycles push down.  The 5.6TD cycle is topping during the day providing some (but not a lot) of upside impulse.  The 2.8TD cycle  is down.  So with this cycle alignment I expect Monday to be down.  I will be surprised if we don't get a 1% (or more) down day on the S&P 500.

I mentioned several days the possibility of an "M" pattern forming, here is a visual of the SPY and the cycles take a look:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis - I could be wrong.


  1. Where is the 20WK WALL cycle in all of this?

  2. Inlet,

    Phil Davis of Phil's Stock World also wrote (I believe on Friday) that he believes we will get an "M" pattern.

    Are you shorting anything?


  3. Shadow - see comments and week ahead 05-09-2011 (I show the Wall cycle). It should top within the next few trading days and head down into late july.

  4. Doctrader. I have been trading QID as a short substitute. I hold some shares in QID currently as I believe high flyers like AAPL, AMZN, PCLN, etc have the most petential to crash big time (if/when we get a pullback). I also trade around this core holding - made 1 nice scalp last week on QID. QID is not for everyone as it is a 2X etf of the Qs.

  5. Inlet,

    Thanks. I was looking at SDS, but perhaps QID is a better choice. The charts look similar.
    However, when I looked at some of the major indices such as the S&P, NYSE, Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq. Also SPY & QQQ. Only the Nasdaq & QQQ are sitting on the 20 day ema. The others have fallen through to some degree already. So, if the Nasdaq will follow the others, perhaps it has the most to fall. QID might have more "bang" then SDS.
    I am hoping the market open up or neutral on Monday. Sometimes most of day's move occurs pre-market which is frustrating.