Monday, April 11, 2011

VIX signal 04-11-2011 (update 04-12)

Today the VIX pulled back more than 47.5% form its top in March.  This is a trend change signal. 

Three consecutive down days is needed for confirmation.  Today was the 3rd consecutive down day on the S&P (but the DJIA was green today).  I believe this is confirmation of a trend change (to down), but would like to see a 4th down day to be certain.  Regardless, it seems the market has topped.

You decide.

Update 04-12:  Got a 4th consecutive down day.  Confirmation is definite.
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5 comments:

  1. AnonymousApril 11, 2011 at 10:41 PM

    I like the sound of that, largely in cash now :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. InletApril 12, 2011 at 8:41 AM

    GL, markets are not looking healthy here, so cash is a good option IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  3. tomterrificApril 12, 2011 at 10:20 AM

    Explain your 47.5% pull back in the VIX comment please. Is that a formula for a top?

    tomterrific

    ReplyDelete
  4. InletApril 12, 2011 at 1:51 PM

    Tom -
    see my explanation about a month ago inre 47.5% (and the bell curve and 2 std deviations) and the VIX. Then if you have questions ask away.

    ReplyDelete
  5. tomterrificApril 13, 2011 at 8:23 AM

    Thanks Inlet!

    ReplyDelete

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