Weekly outlook Aug 29, 2016

The week just ended was down as expected.  Dow down the most (%) while the Nasdaq was down a small amount (%).  I had hoped (thought) we may see a larger move.

The coming week looks like another down week with a stronger move down as the dominant 4.5 month cycle moves mostly sideways in a topping action.  The other cycles are down.  Down move should complete by end of the week so if you are short (Inverse ETF?) you may want to clear position before week end.

GL traders

Aug 22, 2016 weekly outlook

I stated  last week  " It appears the week should show a down bias."  I was partially right as the NASDAQ was up for the week while other major averages were down.  Looks like the coming week should provide enough downside to consider a trade using an inverse ETF of Dow industrials, SP500 or Russell 2000.  All the cycles I show on my chart  except the 4.5 month (20 week, 100 TDs) cycle are down for the coming week.

GL traders

Sample short term (intraday) chart.  No cycle tools, denoted cycle (tops/bottoms) turns with vertical lines:

Outlook for week of Aug 15, 2016

Last week I stated  "Dow and SandP500 should make marginally new highs during the coming week".  Not only that but the Nasdaq set new highs.  The Dow Jones Transportation Average seems to be lagging.

In the coming week the 9 month and 10 week cycles are down.  The 4.5 month cycle is up.  The five week cycle is topping as the 2.5 week cycle bottoms.  Two longer cycles down,  one up. The right translation of the 9 month cycle (due to uptrend) should  be playing out.  It appears the week should show a down bias.

GL traders

Outlook for week of Aug 8, 2016

The past week saw some new highs.  But, the market was down during first half of the week and then up as two short cycles bottomed mid week (just as I  thought would happen), Basically the market was flat for the week (no impressive break out).  We did get bigger moves (up and down) as I suggested would happen.

Dow and SandP500 should make marginally new highs during the coming week as more cycles up than down with the dominant 4.5 month cycle still up. TSI has a negative bias.

GL traders

Aug 2016 outlook

By mid August cycles should start to dominate to the down side.  By August 15 shorts (inverse ETFs) should be considered.  Currently market is over bought  and should start a correction by the 3rd week of August and this downturn should last into mid November......

GL traders

Outlook for week of Aug 1, 2016

DOW down for the past week, SP500 up a very small amount for the past week, NAZ performed best (up the most) for the week.  Overall the markets were sideways for the week with only DOW showing the expected downside bias.

Next week we have cycles up, down, topping and bottoming.  Makes for a somewhat hard to interpret combination.  Appears market may be down to start the week as 2 shorter cycles bottom and up the last half of the week once the bottoming happens.  For the week expecting a sideways week with more movement down and up than the past 2 weeks,

GL traders,

Gold cycles do not correlate to the general market (like SPX).  Longer cycles are 1 year and 6 month cycles.  Appears 6 month cycle dominant.

6 month cycle up along with the 6 week cycle. 3 month cycle and 3 week cycles down. Given positive TSI I suspect an upside bias.

UPDATE 8,  3, 2016:  Other ways of looking for buy/sell  points:
1:  Multiple embedded envelops and intersection of upper channel lines (sell) and lower channel lines (buy).
2: DPO - Detrended Price Option shows when price gets too high (sell) or too low (buy)

 

Enjoy

Outlook for week of July 25, 2016

I said to expect a sideways market with an upside bias for the week.  That describes what we saw I believe as both the SP500 and DOW30 were both up less than 1%.  With the 40 week (9 month ) cycle being down and showing some dominance and the 5, 2.5  week cycles down (10, 20 week cycles up) expect a sideways market for the coming week.  The difference is - a DOWN side bias.  The market giveth one week and takes it back the next week!!!

Expect trading in a tight range.

GL traders

Update  July 27: As suggested the week is flat with down bias (so far)

Outlook July 18, 2015

Off to visit old high school friends and family so will not be posting over the weekend.

Shorter cycle (5 week cycle) should top and turn down.  The 2.5 week cycle bottoms as 5 week chart tops.  With these 2 cycles off setting I expect Thur/Fri this week to be sideways.  The 40 week cycle has also topped and turned down. 

I expect this 40 week cycle to be somewhat dominant.  In this case the up side will be limited next week  (upside bias).

GL traders.  I will post again in about 10 days, sooner if I get a connection  and the time...

Update 7/21/2016:

I suggested sideways action with the longer 40 week cycle limiting upside potential.

end update
 

 

 

Weekly outlook July 11, 2016

I suggested an attempt at ATHs may be in the cards last week.  SPX gave it a try (above close high, but pulled back to below that level at the close Friday).  So the SPX is near its ATH at Friday's close.  Unless we get adverse news Monday should show new ATHs.

With several cycles turned up (and early last week set a bottom?) I believe the week will be an up week.

GL traders

Weekly outlook July 5, 2016

Bottom should be set and new trend up starting as multiple shorter cycles turn up.  During July odds are we see some new highs in popular indexes.  Maybe highs  next week (depending on data points).

Enjoy the 4th weekend.  GL traders