The coming week looks like another down week with a stronger move down as the dominant 4.5 month cycle moves mostly sideways in a topping action. The other cycles are down. Down move should complete by end of the week so if you are short (Inverse ETF?) you may want to clear position before week end.
GL traders
Between 1683 and 1907 (224 years) there were 26 "panic" events. That is an event every 8.615384615 years.
ReplyDeleteThere are 365.25 days in a year (.25 to account for leap years). 365.25 x 8.615384615 = 3146.76923062 (which is 1,000 x pi).
Pi is the number of radii in a circle's circumference (the perfect cycle is a circle?).
More later on the "pi" cycle
So is there a cycle 3146.8 days long (8.62 years)? Turns out there is a 4.3 year cycle or 2 cycles in 8.62 years. Each cycle advances 2.15 years and falls 2.15 years.
ReplyDeleteTurns out 6 x 8.6 = 51.6 years or a K Wave (google Kondratiev wave). Cycles (waves based on a math constant "pi"........
Last 4.3 cycle bottom was 10/07/2015 and next top is 12/01/17.
hello Intel,
ReplyDeleteI opened short position on the SP500 I have to close? I was expecting to hold it until November?
The 9 month cycle is down, the 4.5 month (20 week) dominant cycle is ready to turn down, other cycles up near term start turning down in October. Probably OK holding an "inverse" next 10 weeks but consider using stop loss orders.
DeleteTi ringrazio molto per i tuoi suggerimenti e vorrei che ci mettessimo d accordo per una collaborazione ...che ne pensi ?
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for your suggestions and I wish we were to put d cooperative agreement ... what do you think?
DeleteNot sure I understand....
Ok grazie mille e volevo chiederti visto che ti disturbo spesso che e' corretto riconoscerti un compenso per la tua collaborazione....che ne dici pensavi e fammi sapere ciao notte
ReplyDeleteOk thanks a lot and I wanted to ask you since you often disorder and 'corrected recognize compensation for your help .... how about thought and let me know hello night
DeleteI do not do this for compensation. Just hope I don't offer bad advice.
What about crude oil ? It coud by weakness until end of this year .
ReplyDeleteNo expert on oil, but it seems to be trading mostly in a range between $40-60. Cycle is 5+ months and is trading above a recent bottom.
ReplyDeleteHi Inlet, I really appreciate your information share here and I read your blog every day.your work is Unique, based on cycles, when this Bull market will be Over which started Feb/March.2009? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteReza
Excellent question... Not sure I have an answer. If we consider 20% correction a "Bear" market it could be as early as mid November which should be a "nested" bottom for the nine month and shorter cycles. We should know from market action over the next month or so if this looks probable.
ReplyDeleteWe know now that risks increase over the next couple of months and a portfolio should start to be more balanced between long/short/cash.