Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.
Hi, great call! Do you think there will be more downside force coming days? Or, do you already have a date for bottoming? Hope you dont mind the question....
with 10 year rates hitting 3% I believe we see an ICL (Intermediate Cycle Low) by end of April/start of May. If we break lows set earlier in 2018 then longer cycles are in control and we are on BEAR watch.
UNKNOWN - I am tilting toward a May 1 low (especially if April 31 shows weakness toward the close). But, go with your own view. No one cares more about your $s than you do - just be ready to reverse if you see a break of say 3% against you, this is not the time to be a hero.
Downside pressure as I expected (see notes above and chart showing multiple cycles bottoming together).
ReplyDeleteHi, great call! Do you think there will be more downside force coming days? Or, do you already have a date for bottoming?
ReplyDeleteHope you dont mind the question....
with 10 year rates hitting 3% I believe we see an ICL (Intermediate Cycle Low) by end of April/start of May. If we break lows set earlier in 2018 then longer cycles are in control and we are on BEAR watch.
ReplyDeleteOk, since it it already end of april, i was wondering if you could determine a more precise bottoming day. Thnx
ReplyDeleteNice call Inlet....
ReplyDeleteUNKNOWN - I am tilting toward a May 1 low (especially if April 31 shows weakness toward the close). But, go with your own view. No one cares more about your $s than you do - just be ready to reverse if you see a break of say 3% against you, this is not the time to be a hero.
ReplyDelete