Sunday, November 15, 2015

Nov 16, 2015 weekly outlook

Seems the short cycles are being over run by the longer cycles.  We had a post in early November regarding these longer cycles (7 years - Jagular cycle, 3/12 years (40 + Months) - Kitchin cycle and the Wall cycle (20 weeks or 100 TDs 4 1/2 months).  There is also a 9 month cycle and 13 12 month and 18 month  cycle in the mix  derivatives of the Wall cycle.  Many of these cycles are set to bottom by around February as they move down together.

Following is a chart detailing the longest cycles which should bottom Feb/Mar time frame:

The 7 year cycle (Juglar cycle), the Kitchin cycle (40+ months - 3 1/2 years) and 1/3 Kitchin cycle (13 1/2 + months) are bottoming).

Next are shorter cycles like the 9 months and 4 1/2 months (Wall) cycles are bottoming.  NOTE: all cycles longer than the Wall cycle are multiples of the Wall cycle.  9 Month  - 2X Wall; 1/3 Kitchin - 3X Wall; Kitchin - 9X Wall; Juglar 18X Wall.... 

Finally there are the shorter cycles on which we normally focus.  In order to align  shorter cycles within longer cycles it was necessary to shift the shorter cycles (from time to time adjustments may be necessary to reflect the latest data).  Keep in mind this  is my opinion and should only be used as a single data point  of your analysis.  The short cycles should have bottomed by the end of the past week, then some upside (no market moves in a straight line) and then a thrust down as the longer cycles dominate into a bottom in Feb/Mar.  A low of around 1530  in the first quarter 2016 should not be a surprise.  Here is the short term:


GL traders

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