Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
sept 22, 2014 - Is it time?
take a look:
Have we topped? I have a full position RWM.
We may see a try at higher highs by mid week, but I suspect we are at/near a high:
GL
Update: 9/22 sold a tranche of RWM; hope to buy it back if R2K pops a bit.:
First, The stock market generated a confirmed and official Hindenburg Omen Friday, September 19th, 2014, as a second observation occurred Friday, after a first observation on Thursday, September 18th. It means that an official H.O. potential stock market crash signal is now on the clock. This is a new development over the past few days. What is so troublesome is the timing, that it comes at the precise same time that a rare and important and dangerous Bearish divergence is occurring between the NYSE cumulative Advance/Decline Line and stocks, and also is coming at the same time the long developing multi-decade extremely dangerous Bearish Jaws of Death pattern looks complete. This confluence is very dangerous, and it is arriving at the seasonally worst time of the year for stocks, the September into October timeframe.
Hurst’s Principle of Commonality states that financial markets around the world move with a good deal in common. What this means in practical terms is that troughs tend to form at the same times in all markets, and to a lesser extent peaks too form at the same time. However those troughs (and peaks) are not necessarily of the same magnitude in each market. Because of the harmonic ratios between the cycles, and the fact that cycle wavelengths vary, a particular trough can very easily have a different magnitude in a different market.
If you follow along I have been trading RWM (inverse R2k) all year, and yes R2K is down about 5% for the year. And yes I stated in this post I am all in on RWM (invested my allocation for that position). R2K diverging is often a sign that the market is rising on fewer and fewer stocks which can happens as a market tops.
Many are saying this will be an 8 year bull market.
ReplyDeletePost links of the "many" so I can consider their reasoning,
Deletehttp://www.safehaven.com/article/35194/high-alert-the-stock-market-is-in-a-dangerous-place-right-now
DeleteFirst, The stock market generated a confirmed and official Hindenburg Omen Friday, September 19th, 2014, as a second observation occurred Friday, after a first observation on Thursday, September 18th. It means that an official H.O. potential stock market crash signal is now on the clock. This is a new development over the past few days. What is so troublesome is the timing, that it comes at the precise same time that a rare and important and dangerous Bearish divergence is occurring between the NYSE cumulative Advance/Decline Line and stocks, and also is coming at the same time the long developing multi-decade extremely dangerous Bearish Jaws of Death pattern looks complete. This confluence is very dangerous, and it is arriving at the seasonally worst time of the year for stocks, the September into October timeframe.
https://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view;_ylt=AwrB8pLDPB9UrRoAIlijzbkF;_ylu=X3oDMTI2bnNsdmNiBHNlYwNmcC1leHAEc2xrA2V4cARvaWQDNjUwZDVlOGUzOWUxYWNkZDY0ZjBjODE3MzhkYjc4YTAEZ3BvcwMyBGl0A2Jpbmc-?back=https%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%3Fei%3DUTF-8%26p%3Djaws%2Bof%2Bdeath%2Bpattern%2B2014%26fr%3Dyfp-t-416%26fp%3D1&w=960&h=720&imgurl=twistedlittlethings.com%2Ftlt%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F06%2FJaws-of-Death2.jpg&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Ftwistedlittlethings.com%2Ftlt%2F2013%2F06%2F03%2Fjaws-of-death-update%2F&size=51.2KB&name=%3Cb%3EJaws+of+Death%3C%2Fb%3E+Update&p=jaws+of+death+pattern+2014&oid=650d5e8e39e1acdd64f0c81738db78a0&fr2=&fr=&tt=%3Cb%3EJaws+of+Death%3C%2Fb%3E+Update&b=0&ni=21&no=2&ts=&tab=organic&sigr=1233bionn&sigb=12nngqj77&sigi=129vj9vbq&sigt=10r0o78g5&sign=10r0o78g5&.crumb=5ptbHy0BfZq&
DeleteJaws of death
Nice chart... really nice.
ReplyDelete-
Problem is... you're clearly cherry picking your indexes. I'm almost surprised you didn't pick/highlight the R2K which has really struggled this year.
What about the Transports though?
Or the Nasdaq Comp... or the NYSE Comp'... or the sp'500?
If you look at a broader chart of any of those, they are all super bullish.
--
Regardless, have a good week.
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/little-commonality/
DeleteHurst’s Principle of Commonality states that financial markets around the world move with a good deal in common. What this means in practical terms is that troughs tend to form at the same times in all markets, and to a lesser extent peaks too form at the same time. However those troughs (and peaks) are not necessarily of the same magnitude in each market. Because of the harmonic ratios between the cycles, and the fact that cycle wavelengths vary, a particular trough can very easily have a different magnitude in a different market.
If you follow along I have been trading RWM (inverse R2k) all year, and yes R2K is down about 5% for the year. And yes I stated in this post I am all in on RWM (invested my allocation for that position). R2K diverging is often a sign that the market is rising on fewer and fewer stocks which can happens as a market tops.
Deletedone, check your mail
ReplyDelete