Appears a short cycle (12 days) provided the bounce off the bottom. That cycle should have spent its upside energy by Wednesday. Then we will have the Kitchin, 1/3 Kitchin cycle, Wall cycle, and 1/4 wall cycle will be down. by mid week the 1/8 Wall (12 day) cycle will be down.
So we may get some upside (baiting the bulls?) and then some vigorous down the last couple of days of the week. I expect the week to be down (and it could be substantial). Eventually I think we test the 1695-1700 area based on some longer term DPOs (but not just yet)
Here is a visual:
02/12 updated chart:
re: 'but not a bad call either.'
ReplyDeleteAre you kidding? You were a mere 8pts above the floor, that is negligible noise. It was a great call.
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considering the turn in the weekly charts this Thur/Friday, I've ditched the original target zone of 1710/1690.
Bears surely had their best chance this week..with BAD jobs data, and they still couldn't manage to hit the 200 day MA of sp'1710.
We're ramped 60pts in just over 2 trading days. So long as Yellen doesn't say anything stupid next week, the market will surely keep climbing?
Have a good weekend
short cycle definitely looking like upside spent (Monday).
ReplyDeleteUpside exceeded expectations by a lot.
ReplyDeleteLooks like another leg up for the Bull as it broke S&P 1810 resistance.
ReplyDeletedid the short cycle (12 days) top today (Wed)?
ReplyDelete''I expect the week to be down (and it could be substantial). Eventually I think we test the 1695-1700 area ''
ReplyDeletereally?
Paul, since you seem to KNOW what the market will do "share it". Or, maybe you don't and get off trying o ridicule others because you don't have a clue.
ReplyDeletedear Inlet,
ReplyDeletewe are on out way to 1965-1985.
there might be pullback on the way, but the trend is up! (until mid july 2014 we will see values above 1960's) !
:)
Paul - Really? I seem to recall DJIA 1000+ and back under 600 a couple of times in the 70s. So what are you saying? Another 15 years (1965-80) where we go nowhere, just wait for big pullbacks and buy then sell 100% gains? Over that 20 years there was something for everybody (bulls and bears) so not sure how 1965-1985 offers much guidance.
ReplyDelete1965 - 1985 points in spx 500 until July 2014.
ReplyDeletesorry for not mentioning it.
Still unclear as to what you are trying to say. Points up or down? And how does a 4-5 month prediction aid the swing trader who is trading ever few weeks (usually a few days up to 1-2 months). I only offer comment on longer term because I was requested to offer this context (not for swing trading).
ReplyDelete