Here is the chart - you be the judge:
Update 11/26
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Looking for clues
As we follow the cycles we look for other clues (context) as to what the market may do over the next few months. Saw a chart of G7 industrial output and leading indicators. Noted the similarity between 2005-07 and 2011-13. So I placed the 2005-07 results underneath the 2011-13 results so you could observe what I saw. Does this mean we see another 2009? not necessarily, but then maybe we see that or worse.
Here is the chart - you be the judge:
GL traders
Update 11/26
Here is the chart - you be the judge:
Update 11/26
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A major wave lower..next year..but not until a major peak in late spring.
ReplyDelete--
QE-pomo is still enough to over-ride most econ-weakness, and besides, lower oil/commodity prices is a boon to many industries right now.
Inlet Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. I've been catching up on some readings of the market and everyone is seeing a melt up into the end of the year. I believe you are seeing a decline. Looking forward to your update.
ReplyDeletec88 - I try to interpret what the cycles are saying. I don't always hit the mark. I think we are due a correction, then possibly a rally in the spring. What we are sure of without reservation is that each day that passes we are one day closer to a major correction and need to be watchful for that.
DeletePermabear - if the past (2005-2009) repeats then we should be near a top with a correction starting (2011-2015).
ReplyDeleteHai inlet,How to end this year? Whether we will continue to rally or we should cap the decline? According to your percentage which is greater?
ReplyDeleteSandiawan - I believe the charts are suggesting a pullback starts soon (possibly next week) into January. I hesitate to suggest a %, but greater than 50% would be my guess.
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