July 22, 2013 weekly outlook

I had opined we would see some downside in July, but stated I felt it would be moderate and not a major down turn as many seemed to expect.  Seems even my outlook was too bearish as some of the major indexes set all time highs this past week. 

My short term calls appear to have been 3-4 days early on average - so July has been a cruel month as my predictions go.  Still there is enough time left we could see July end up flat or down slightly if we can get a few more reports like GOOG and MSFT.  I guess time will tell.

Since my short term calls tended to be early then this week should be a down week?  Let's see what the charts say (longer term chart SPX):

(shorter term SPX):

Update Jul 23 close:

Update Jul 24 close:  SPX rounded top may morph into a H and S pattern

Update Jul 26 11:30 EDT: Will we get a well formed H and S?