As I have pointed out shorter cycles have tended to be right translated (up leg longer) until the last couple of weeks. These shorter cycles seem to have become more symmetrical now. This is the type of development I would expect during topping action (transitioning from right translated shorter cycles). Based on this one should expect a change in the longer term trend (mid-Nov until now). We should know in fairly short order if this is in fact the case, but I believe we are ready to turn lower by at least 6-7% during April.
Here is a chart showing projections (and other notes):
GL Traders
update apr 2 1:00 PM edt
Appears SPX broke below the slightly up channel it has been in the last 10 trading days. This would happen if the trend is changing (final top in). Then the scenario would be something like this:
04-04 close - Has the shorter cycles gone left translated? Looks probable:
Looks like we may be finally getting the expected pullback. I believe my guidance recently has been spot on (better than usual?).
ReplyDeleteI have seen some calling for a severe sell down. That could happen, but if you recall predictions for the year in late 2012 and early 2013 there should be one more high in June. So we sell down in April (8-10%??) and set final highs by mid year is my current outlook (subject to monitoring and change if the data drives a change).