Saturday, November 17, 2012

November 2012 update II

The market has achieved the projected downside (plus a bit) for the 20 week Wall cycle (see DPO(51) on chart - 20 weeks is 100 days and half that plus 1 is 51).  So the market may be slightly oversold here (say 15-20 S&P points?) and we may get a bounce into Thanksgiving, but I am expecting lower lows into the first week of December.

Here is the shorter swing cycles visual:

The Wall cycle and 35TD cycle should provide some downside pressure into the first week of December, partially offset by the 22TD (lunar) cycle being up.  Also, the 3rd 1/3 Kitchin cycle (equal 3 Wall cycles and the third of the 3 Wall cycles is generally provides the most action) is down into the end of the month.  Since this is the 3rd 1/3Kitchin that means the Kitchin cycle is also ready to bottom.  With longer cycles we normally get the strongest move near a bottom/top (turning point).  So I believe we could see another 100 points down over the next 10-11 trading days....

Here is a visual of these longer cycles:

GL traders and happy Thanksgiving.


  1. keep up the good work Inlet, 2 miles a day is awesome, you have come a long long way, no going back., now i really want the santa cycle and seasonals to overtake the kitchin cycle and others. oh please. i have been good. 1420 hehehe nice on the RWM


    1. Sue - I feel good, so I think I am gonna be OK for a while. Dr told me if I made it thru the operation etc maybe I could have 10-12 good years (none if I didn't have the surgery). So I made it thru (even though at times I wasn't so sure I would).

      I think Nov gives us a turkey and cycles bottom first week or so of Dec and we get a bounce into the new year (would coincide with some "cliff" agreement?). So we will watch for the jolly old elf.

      Yeah, about time to cash out some of my profits on RWM. Got close to a 10% gain on them. Don't want to be too greedy.

    2. i didn't have any knowledge of your past health issues but am very happy that you have turned the corner and continue to get better. Best of health to you and your loved ones.

    3. Had a tough few momths (Mar-Jul). Triple bypass in May - and still had issures. Pacemaker in July seemed to fix a heart synch issue. People tell me they know others (relative/friend) took a lot longer to bounce back (than I have). I have kept pushing - getting my strength/stamina back so I can have a normal life...

      Thanks for your wishes.

  2. ...So the market may be slightly oversold here (say 15-20 S&P points?) and we may get a bounce into Thanksgiving,...

    Well, looks like we got a bounce. Larger than I expected so far. But look at the chart of shorter cycles and notice I did draw a "green" filled circle indicating a potential buy here.