Economic cycles III

We have covered 2 of the 3 economic cycles we identified as important within the economy.  We covered the Kitchin (inventory) cycle and  Jugular (investment) cycle.  This leaves the third cycle:

The three most important cycles are:

1. ...
2. ...
3. the 15-18 year Kuznets cycle in housing construction / prices and associated consumer spending.

The third cycle really encompasses all construction and infracstructure building.  We see faint signs that housing is trying  to bottom.  Construction/housing topped in 2006.  Half of 15 is 7.5 and 2006 + 7.5 is mid 2013 (half of 18 is 9 - 2006 + 9 is 2015).  Given this - construction/housing is 1.5 or more years to a true bottom.

The last time all three of these cycles were bottoming in close proximity was in the 1970s.  So one might suspect that 2008-2018 will be similiar to the 1970s.  Of course, there will be differences - longer cycles like the K-Wave are at different time frames than in the 1970s. 

We included the Kuznet cycle in our last post - so review that for a visual.  Here though is how this fits within the longer K-Cycle:

Note: the Kuznet cycles nest within (4 cycles) the K-cycle.

Next week should be a temporary swing trade bottom.  The 35TD and 22TD cycles should bottom by the end of the week.  I have placed limit orders to sell 1/2 of my "inverse" insurance (RWM) around $26.50. 

Here is a visual of RWM:

GL traders.....  Vote and vote often.  ;)