I have looked at the SPY as a proxy for the market. First I looked at the longer cycles. The 3.39 year cycle is over 3 weeks to its top (Nov 19) so it continues to push higher. The next longest cycle that I observed is a 17 week cycle. It is also up. At this time these seem to be the dominant/controlling cycles. So expect the market to grind higher for the next 3.5 weeks.....
Then I looked at the next longest cyce which I believe to be the 34 day cycle. This cycle is down. But I do not believe it has enough force (or downward amplitude) to overcome the longer cycles to any major extent. Sure it will temper any rise (grind higher?) by the longer cycles....
Finally I looked at the next shorter cycle which I believe to be 22 days. Any trading ops (see chart) long will be to buy drops and sell pops. But I believe these opportunities will offer limited profits. I would avoid shorting against the major trend (up).......
GL
No comments:
Post a Comment