Thursday, September 1, 2016

September outlook 2016

September is on the downside of the nine month cycle. The 4.5 month cycle has topped and turned down (dominant). The longer 18 month cycle is up along with the shorter 5 and 10 week cycles.

Expect the month of Sept to show a downward bias as the dominant cycles (4.5 and 9 months) control the  bias of the market.  Also, there is an election and surprises in that arena could have short term impacts on the market.

GL traders


  1. Where do you see the Spx come 11--115

    1950 ?? If you have 1 guess

    1. May depend on who wins the election.... 1975 or less???

  2. what makes the 4.5-month cycle more dominant than the other cycles?

  3. Two things influence the impact of a cycle. Time and average daily amplitude. Even though on any given day a shorter (or longer) cycle may have a larger impact than a dominant cycle over time if the daily amplitude is large enough the cycle will dominate.

    Look at the charts and see which cycle gives you a more visible/deeper (usually) bottoms. Over time a cycle can lose dominance if the average daily amplitude decreases or another cycle's daily amplitude increases. Usually the "eyeball" is sufficient to determine dominance.