Saturday, September 17, 2016

sept 19, 2016 weekly outlook

The market was up, down, sideways during the week.  More up than down as the indices showed  gains for the week (loss for last 6 trading days). Lots of movement during the week, but not a lot for the week as a whole.  Next week we have central banks meeting so volatility may continue. Longer cycles down, shorter cycles up.   Still expecting  longer cycles to take control.

There are longer cycles that may push the indexes lower over the next 2-3 months.

GL traders


  1. Arnt the big cycles pointing down yet markets are flying higher .. am I missing something

  2. KP - in the past I wondered about cycle symmetry. Research told me that cycles often over time spend longer going up than down. This is more true of the longer cycles than the short cycles. From 1992 to late 1999 (6+ years) the market went up and then down 2000-2002. Up 2002 into 2007, down into March 2009. These are the two recent examples of market advancing something like 70% or more of the time and declining 25-30% of the time.

    This seems to be true of medium term cycles (4.5, 9, 18 month cycles) also. So people give up on a correction and enter the market just at the wrong time.... A correction is coming, but it will be 70-80% thru the cycle before it happens, so patience is required (and being patient is difficult).

  3. Awesome inlet thank you for your reply my friend been patient since feb 2016 shorted like a idiot at 1940 .. yes I'm a idiot waiting patiently for gap fill 1865

  4. Hi Inlet, I show in my book The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle that cycle lengths of 4.4 years up and 2.2 years down fit into the larger 17.6 year cycle going back 100 years. This is what you are talking about above. I also have a medium term 17.6 weeks cycle which I have used to great effect.