Saturday, September 24, 2016

Sept 26, 2016 outlook

Is  a picture worth a thousand words?  OK, here goes - why does it seem that uptrends go on and on past the cycle mid-point?  Because they do.  Years ago I was asking myself this.  So I did some research and discovered that on a time line for a cycle the cycle is not symmetrical but about  75% of the length of a cycle is spent advancing.   Shorter cycles may not show this asymmetrical tendency.

The first thousand words (1994-2002)

OK, you are a speed reader - here is another thousand words (2002-2009):

These are long cycles,  how about shorter cycles (2009-2012):

And current  market (4 1/2 months - estimate 3 months up and 1 1/2 months down):

OK, that is 4,000 words worth.  Seems clear to me point made that cycles are asymmetrical.  If you treat them as if they are symmetrical you may sell too soon or go ALL IN (that is the CON) just when you should be cutting long positions and/or buying some inverse ETFs as hedges.

GL traders

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