Monday, September 5, 2016

Sep 2016 - Kitchin Cycle Top

The market is at/nearing a major cycle (Kitchin Cycle - Google it) top.  This cycle will not bottom for 20 more months (in 2018).  I have been asked about when I expect a bear market (if we get a 1 1/2 - 2 year recession then this could mark the bottom [Apr/May 2018] of a bear market). 

Note: the shortest cycle shown is the 4 1/2 month cycle (Wall Cycle - Google it)  on this longer term chart.  You can mentally place the shorter cycles I post on top of this longer term cycle....

So there you have it - a longer term potential market outcome.

GL investors

11 comments:

  1. Thank you Inlet, that was very informative as usual

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  2. I think it is easier to label it as a 3 year cycle low usually occuring in October. In the 21st century the 3 year cycle lows occurred in 2002,2005,2008,2011 and 2014. In the 2 bear markets there were throwovers into March of the following year. The next low is due in 2017 and in case of a real bear market and not just a correction in a bull market there may be a secondary low in March 2018.

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  3. Kitchin cycle is a short business cycle of about 40 months associated with high (over inventoried) or low (under inventoried) levels of inventory. Length of cycle may vary from 3-5 years depending on factors such as what is being inventoried.

    This cycle is observed in equities based on economic effects. Cycle and cause was detailed by Kitchin (hence the name of the cycle).

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  4. quando pensi che inizi il bear market?

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    Replies
    1. "When do you think the bear market?"

      I have no clue when it will start. We are due a market pull back. It might be the start of a "bear", it might not be and may just be a correction.

      Delete
  5. agosto 2017 e un ulteriore ribasso ad aprile 2018?

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    Replies
    1. "August 2017 and further downside in April 2018?"

      Generally, "bear" markets last a year or more, but will stair step down (like it stair stepped up) so you will have reversals on the way to the bottom.

      Delete
  6. Chart shows During the last two K cycle tops to bottoms, the market rose in a bullish manner. Perhaps it'll be different this time?

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    Replies
    1. Other factors is the Jugular cycle (about 2 x Kitchin cycle) and other long term cycles which may have bottomed March 2009. Generally, I focus on cycles shorter than a year, but once or twice a year as information purposes cover longer cycles.

      These cycles may be of prime interest to longer term investors, but are background information for swing traders.

      Delete
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