November proved to be more of an up market than I anticipated as intermediate length cycles continued to be right translated (up trend action). Going in to December the Kitchin cycle remains up still. The Kitchin third cycle remains in its down leg. The Wall cycle should have topped and turned down. The Half Wall cycle remains in an up leg and the Qtr Wall is in a down leg (see prior post for short cycle chart).
So we have the Kitchin cycle and Half Wall up. The remaining cycles are down. So December should be down for the month (bottom around Christmas?).
Here are the longer cycles:
GL traders
12/04/2013 update - Great chart:
http://static.safehaven.com/authors/readtheticker/32002_b_large.png
http://www.safehaven.com/article/32002/sp500-wall-and-kitchin-cycle-review
That chart should scare the bears until the spring.
ReplyDelete-
Not really if it play out like the previous tops.
DeleteFor now DJ follows the 2000 top trajectory.
There is of course scenario with another higher high, but the first drop is anyway a buy....
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YZhnKa7dO4Y/Upd8GP8r-8I/AAAAAAAADWo/dGJcouFBmqA/s1600/w153-10.png
Nice chart. Looks like a projection of 7-10% correction (DOW)?
Deletelooks OK for a swing trade (2-3 weeks)?
DeleteYes, I expect a standard correction 8%-10% and the dip to be bought, than we will see. The move is not extreme enough to expect reversal without retest.
DeleteWhen there is too much greed(the trade is one sided) the corrections are sharp but short living....
Right translated cycles usually finish with sharp but short living moves...
The history says the same - roughly 4 weeks and 10%...
That is my plan:)
BTFD mentality is too ingrained for the sharks not to take advantage of it. Its analagous to sticking your arm in a nest of pit vipers and jerking it back just before they strike......you may get away with it for seemingly forever but one day these boyz are going to take your arm off and everything attached. THAT is what they do for a living.
ReplyDeleteKli, that is the risk when you play in the casino....
ReplyDelete
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game Adventure Town