Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Outlook for 2014 - part II

The second part of our 2014 outlook is based on how the cycles align.  Recently the market does not seem to align with our cycle projection.  Ever so often we seem to get a short cycle (or long cycle) in the cycles we follow for swing trading.  According to some authorities I have read these variations in length conform to Fibonacci ratios.

When this happens we see highs when we were expecting pull backs (like now).  Never argue with the data, but adapt positioning the cycles to match the data.  So I have attempted to do this. It appears we will make a yearly high around mid-January 2014, a yearly low around mid-August.  Lesser highs around mid-June and late October.   A lesser low around the first of April.

These projections do not attempt to account for longer cycles that should bottom in the second half of 2014.  There is the Grand Super Cycle (120 years - 1774, 1894, 2014?).  This cycle divides into 2 K-Waves of 60 years (1894, 1954, 2014).  Each K-Wave divides into 2 Super cycles of 30 years (1954, 1984, 2014).  Of lesser degree are cycles of about 7-9 years (Juglar or  Pi cycle (3141 days/8.6 years)), and the Kuznet cycle of 15-17 years.  Kress used 40 year and 12 year divisions of the longer cycles I believe.  Needless to say some are projecting a very serious downturn in 2014.

Here is 2014 graphic projections:

Happy New Year and a profitable 2014


  1. Wow, we've got a lot of coinciding dates! http://highrevsopenhouse.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-3521-month-3-year-cycle-revisited_16.html

    Best wishes for a great 2014.

  2. That is true. You express cycles in months whereas for the shorter cycles I use weeks (20 weeks = 4.4 months for example). Had noticed/seen your post shortly after you posted it. It always confirms - makes you feel you may be on the right track - when you see independent analysis with similar results.

  3. Hey Inlet...

    I certainly like the floor in Aug/Sept time.

    Armstrongs ECM has an intermediate floor around then, with a ramp into late 2015.

    So..it really seems a matter of where we max out in the coming few months..and then how far down by late summer.

    I'll certainly be looking to be long for a good year, once we move into autumn 2014.