Outlook July 18, 2015

Off to visit old high school friends and family so will not be posting over the weekend.

Shorter cycle (5 week cycle) should top and turn down.  The 2.5 week cycle bottoms as 5 week chart tops.  With these 2 cycles off setting I expect Thur/Fri this week to be sideways.  The 40 week cycle has also topped and turned down. 

I expect this 40 week cycle to be somewhat dominant.  In this case the up side will be limited next week  (upside bias).

GL traders.  I will post again in about 10 days, sooner if I get a connection  and the time...

Update 7/21/2016:

I suggested sideways action with the longer 40 week cycle limiting upside potential.

end update
 

 

 

Weekly outlook July 11, 2016

I suggested an attempt at ATHs may be in the cards last week.  SPX gave it a try (above close high, but pulled back to below that level at the close Friday).  So the SPX is near its ATH at Friday's close.  Unless we get adverse news Monday should show new ATHs.

With several cycles turned up (and early last week set a bottom?) I believe the week will be an up week.

GL traders

Weekly outlook July 5, 2016

Bottom should be set and new trend up starting as multiple shorter cycles turn up.  During July odds are we see some new highs in popular indexes.  Maybe highs  next week (depending on data points).

Enjoy the 4th weekend.  GL traders

July 2016 outlook

I had been showing the last week of June as a point at which several cycles (medium/short term) achieved bottoms.  If you followed along you know this.  It is starting to appear that the bottom may have been set even though 1 more push down may be possible as determining bottom dates is not an exact science.  Still, my record looks reasonably good.....

If bottoms were set as I suspect then we start July with the medium/short length cycles turning up so the first half of July should show some upside strength (20, 10, 5 week cycles up).  By mid month the 5 week cycle tops and turns down so we could see some weakness the second half of July.

For your education and reading pleasure:
http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/IndLibrary.aspx?65tf=108_jim-hurst-method

GL traders

TELSA requested:

Jun 27, 2016 weekly outlook

I mentioned in a couple of prior posts to be on the look out for a "scary" sell off.  Friday should qualify.

The market may be ready to establish a bottom.  Usually more than 1 day is required to establish a bottom.  So at least the first part of next week probably (2-3 days) will be needed to do that.  See update to last week's post - Bradley Chart  has July 5 as a turning point....  Because the bottom probably will be higher than the Feb 11 bottom  I feel that Feb 11 was a bottom for the 9 month cycle  and the next bottom for that cycle will be late in November,  The next 2-3 weeks should clarify this.

GL traders

Future outlook week of June 20, 2016

 I said last week:  "According to my cycle analysis appears next week (and week of June 20) should see a sell off.".    That describes the week, except somewhat less downside than expected.

This week should continue down as several cycles are set to bottom.  The question is how severe will the sell down be  (BRexit during the week and Fed Chair appearing before congress I believe).  Could be a scary sell off (or not) depending on events.  The technical setup calls for a sizable pull back before month's end....

GL traders

Update 06/24:

June 13, 2016 weekly outlook

I wrote last week: "During the week the 5 week cycle tops and then we should see a notable sell down"  I think that describes the action of the week just ended.....

Failed to  reach ATH (and closing high) before mid week pull back.  According to my cycle analysis appears next week (and week of June 20) should see a sell off.  Sell off could be scary if cycle bottoms align as I show....  Time will tell.

GL traders

Weekly outlook June 6, 2016

Moves of 100-150 points on the DOW intraday, but not much change by the end of the week (loss of around 70 points).  Practically no change in the SP500 by Friday close.  As I indicated in last week's post the down cycles should suppress the 5 week cycle.

During the week the 5 week cycle tops and then we should see a notable sell down for 2+ weeks in to the end of June.  May be similar to the sell off we saw  mid-Jan  to mid-Feb.  Time will tell, but given recent economic numbers  (retail sales in autos, upscale retail stores  and payroll #s) a sell off should not surprise.

GL traders

May 31, 2016 weekly outlook

 A strong move up off the 5 week cycle bottom in the week just past.  I would expect that upside momentum to fade in the upcoming  week.  If not then the market should be challenging the old highs and possibly setting ATHs by second week of June. 

According to my cycle analysis the longer cycles should keep the 5 week cycle  in check and the market should  fade during most of June.  If we are going to get an ATH (All Time High) I hope that the market goes ahead and makes an ATH soon.

GL traders

May 19, 11:45 GDX buy signal

FLD crossed and interval (15 min) closed above (buy signal):

SHORT term trade - GL traders

two miners