Weekly outlook for Feb 27, 2017

As expected the four trading days in the prior week rose (slight upside bias), but less than 1% for most indexes.

TSI is showing a negative cross.  The 4.5 month cycle and 10 week cycles are into what should be a stronger down part of those 2 cycles.  The 5 week cycle is topping and should be down by mid week.  The nine month is still up, but should be losing upside momentum as it seeks its top.

So it appears any upside will be limited and possibly we see a slight downside bias by week's end.

GL traders

Weekly outlook for Feb 21, 2017

9 month cycle:  2-3 weeks up to top  in early March.  5 week cycle:  up. 10 week cycle:  topping and turning down by end of week.  Market continues slow ascent for next 4 trading days (upside bias).

TSI has reached a level at which a correction is possible in the near future (early March?)

GL traders

VIX and SPX

Outlook Feb 13, 2017

Shorter cycles - some up/some down and  probably offset.

but when we look at some longer cycles we see one at a top (Feb 10 a longer term high?) and another topping in March (could see a market give up 20% to give us a bear?).  We will know by May/June.

GL traders.

Feb 6, 2017 weekly outlook

I said last week " Expect sideways action with possible small/moderate gains for the week".  SnP 500 was up about 7 points and DOW industrials down slightly - so not a bad call as "sideways is what we got for the week.  There was some volatility that could be traded during the week with a spike down during the wee.

I saw a couple of market predictors calling for a high Feb 10.  The 5 week and 20 week cycles are down.  The 10 week cycle is nearing a top (top end of week?).  This probably gives us a sideways week with a downward bias for the week.

GL traders

Jan 30, 2017 weekly outlook

I said last week: "Appears though the market should have an upward bias in the coming week.
".  That proved to be the case.

Coming week we see the 4 1/2 month (20 week cycle) turning down as the 5 and 10 week cycles move higher.  This will prevent a run away to the upside.  Expect sideways action with possible small/moderate gains for the week.

GL traders.

Weekly outlook for Jan 23, 2017

I said last week - "Two shorter cycles bottoming during the week".  From the current chart appears those 2 shorter cycles are definitely up.  Not  sure the "M" pattern will develop....

WARNING: One thing that always screws with the timing of tops and bottoms during this time (Nov through mid January) is the multiple days the market is closed due to holidays (Thanksgiving - 1.5 days, Christmas - 1 day, New Years - 1 day and MLK day.  A total of 4.5 days market is closed in about 1.5 months).  So be aware of the potential compression of market days in a cycle during this time of year.

 Appears though the market should have an upward bias in the coming week.

GL traders

Update - gold/silver index:

Hitting resistance as 7 week cycle tops (should bottom 3rd week of February as 3.5 month cycle tops).

Jan 16, 2017 weekly outlook

Two shorter cycles bottoming during the week (an "M" formation?).  Nothing is for certain and patterns are rarely perfect, but  if the pattern develops as expected the coming week should fall as the pattern develops. 

Bottoms may not match actual data and require some adjustments....

GL traders

Update Jan 18 (see comment on Hurst signal):

 

Jan 9, 2017 weekly outlook

Looking at last week, you should have bought Tuesday.  The market is whipsawing traders (and I missed that call).  Chartists call the recent activity a mid-cycle move down.    This usually gives us an "M" formation and it appears we have the first 3/4 of that formation. 

If that formation completes then the market will be down in the coming week.  I believe we have better than a 50% chance the week is down.

GL traders

Update:

 

Update Jan 12:

 

update Jan 13:

 

Weekly outlook for Jan 2, 2017

I said last week:  

It appears the 10 week cycle did top and turned down.  That down pressure from the 10 week cycle should continue into the new year.

  Can't do much better than that...

The 10 week cycle continues down.  The 5 week cycle is also down.  These two cycles should bottom by Monday Jan 9 and then turn up...

 

GL traders - hope you had a prosperous 2016.

Update Jan 03, 2017:  $gold