September 26, 2016 weekly outlook

Time for cycles to trend down.....  I expect 1 1/2 months down (1/3 of cycle) from 4 1/2 month cycle,

GL traders

 

Sept 26, 2016 outlook

Is  a picture worth a thousand words?  OK, here goes - why does it seem that uptrends go on and on past the cycle mid-point?  Because they do.  Years ago I was asking myself this.  So I did some research and discovered that on a time line for a cycle the cycle is not symmetrical but about  75% of the length of a cycle is spent advancing.   Shorter cycles may not show this asymmetrical tendency.

The first thousand words (1994-2002)

OK, you are a speed reader - here is another thousand words (2002-2009):

These are long cycles,  how about shorter cycles (2009-2012):

And current  market (4 1/2 months - estimate 3 months up and 1 1/2 months down):

OK, that is 4,000 words worth.  Seems clear to me point made that cycles are asymmetrical.  If you treat them as if they are symmetrical you may sell too soon or go ALL IN (that is the CON) just when you should be cutting long positions and/or buying some inverse ETFs as hedges.



GL traders

sept 19, 2016 weekly outlook

The market was up, down, sideways during the week.  More up than down as the indices showed  gains for the week (loss for last 6 trading days). Lots of movement during the week, but not a lot for the week as a whole.  Next week we have central banks meeting so volatility may continue. Longer cycles down, shorter cycles up.   Still expecting  longer cycles to take control.

There are longer cycles that may push the indexes lower over the next 2-3 months.

GL traders

Weekly outlook Sept 12, 2016

"September is on the downside of the nine month cycle. The 4.5 month cycle has topped and turned down (dominant)." - September monthly outlook

Weekly outlook: "This week the 4.5 month cycle turns down after topping the past week" early on this call as late in week before "The 4.5 month and 9 month cycles should start gaining down side momentum so a slight downside drift is possible."

Bonus post on Kitchin cycle: "The market is at/nearing a major cycle  top."

Not perfect,  near miss on my calls. Now that the longer cycle (4.5 month) cycle is showing dominance (and 9 month also down) expect another down week.

I am asked how to set potential price(s):  A frequently used method is a Fibonacci sequence.

gl traders

Sep 2016 - Kitchin Cycle Top

The market is at/nearing a major cycle (Kitchin Cycle - Google it) top.  This cycle will not bottom for 20 more months (in 2018).  I have been asked about when I expect a bear market (if we get a 1 1/2 - 2 year recession then this could mark the bottom [Apr/May 2018] of a bear market). 

Note: the shortest cycle shown is the 4 1/2 month cycle (Wall Cycle - Google it)  on this longer term chart.  You can mentally place the shorter cycles I post on top of this longer term cycle....

So there you have it - a longer term potential market outcome.

GL investors

Weekly outlook Sep 5, 2016

Definitely not the week I was expecting in the week ended.  Most major averages closed higher.  Not a lot higher, but higher whereas, I was calling for a pullback.

This week the 4.5 month cycle turns down.  I have been asked how do you determine what cycle is dominant.  One way is analyzing the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) for different cycle lengths.  I hope my effort to show this helps.

This week the 4.5 month cycle turns down after topping the past week, but all the shorter cycles turn up.  So I suspect a sideways move.  The 4.5 month and 9 month cycles should start gaining down side momentum so a slight downside drift is possible.

GL traders

Update: new chart to further illustrate price based on DPO:

 

 Hope this helps....

September outlook 2016

September is on the downside of the nine month cycle. The 4.5 month cycle has topped and turned down (dominant). The longer 18 month cycle is up along with the shorter 5 and 10 week cycles.

Expect the month of Sept to show a downward bias as the dominant cycles (4.5 and 9 months) control the  bias of the market.  Also, there is an election and surprises in that arena could have short term impacts on the market.

GL traders