Weekly outlook Dec 1, 2014

I suspect we may have been seen (right translated?) a top.  MFI is diverging and headed down while market was topping (going up) past 2 weeks.  Also, TSI experienced a bearish crossover.  Finally crossover of envelop upper lines (11 days and 23 days) are giving a sell signal.  With multiple indicators giving bearish/sell signals the  coming week may be the first down week in a while.    Finally the Russell 2000 is about where it was when I bought RWM 3 weeks  ago.

Here is a visual:

Good luck traders

week of Nov 24, 2014 outlook

When in a strong uptrend it can be difficult to identify (see) troughs because they are minor blips down in the uptrend.

 

http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/40-day-trough/

GL traders

http://thefinancialtap.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/SP-500-Blow-off-top-The-Financial-Tap.png

Update 11/25

http://www.safehaven.com/article/35924/the-flux-capacitor-forecast

outlook week of Nov 17, 2014

Short term:

Long term (Hurst cycles) outlook:
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/will-bull-market-end/
 

GL traders

Nov 10, 2014 weekly outlook (Updated Nov 12)

Less downside pressure than expected as market continued to push ever so slowly higher.  Still it looks like a top formed.  We should see a mid cycle  (40+ TDs cycle) by Nov 17 after a right translated top this past week.  I do not expect a large pull back as this is a mid cycle pull back.  See prior mid cycles for an idea of the extent of mid cycle corrections (usually 2% or so).

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Nov 3, 2014 weekly outlook (Updated)

The current week should have seen the topping of the 20+ TDs cycle.  If we get a right translated top (past cycle midpoint) we could see slightly higher highs on S&P early in the week. but expect a top no later than Tuesday  even in that case.

GL traders

Bought some RWM on Friday, 2 cent per share loss at close.

11/4 update at the close:  So far volatility less than expected,  but appears top forming.

Nov 2014 monthly outlook

Given recent volatility moves in November may be substantial on a daily basis.  Over longer periods expect ups an downs to largely cancel over the month of November.  I expect November to be good for traders, not so good for investors.

We should be at/near a top to start November.  By mid-November the shorter (20+ TDs) cycle should bottom (Nov 17 +/- 1 day).  At that point the shorter cycle (20+ TDs) turns up and the longer (40+ TDs) turns down.  So  they offset to a large degree thru the end of the month and into early December.

I expect we could see around 2% pullback in the month.

GL traders