Mar 31, 2014 - weekly outlook

Appears we should have 1 maybe 2 more days of churning in the lower half of the recent sideways channel and then we begin the advance for the first half of April.  I suspect the SnP500 will make new highs, but watch the NAZ and R2k to see if the  total market has topped (I suspect it may have, but funds and traders are trying to push the SnP500 higher).  By mid April we should see how profits are playing out.  Estimates have been cut enough that profits should meet lowered expectations and if that is all they do the market should correct (I suspect by May).

Here is the coming week (down 1% or so early in the week, but close the week 1% or so higher) in visual form:

GL traders

 

Mar 24, 2014 weekly outlook

The market seems to have established a trading range of about 3%.  the SnP 500 keeps making new highs (barely) while the Dow 30 keeps failing to make new highs by around 1 1/2 %.  I see no reason for this to change and if it repeats the week should be down around 2% into the end of March.

We have short cycles which should bottom this week establishing a mid-cycle dip. 

GL traders

Looks like a Head and Shoulders pattern has developed:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33259/sp500-things-happen-in-threes

Mar 17, 2014 weekly outlook

Looks like the down trend could last a bit longer...  At this time it appears we are 8-9 days away from a mid-cycle (4 month) low as the 4 month cycle tops.  So , currently it appears next week will be down with a bottom the following week near the end of March (28th??).  

GL traders

03/17/2014 - an interesting analog:

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/users/u163/images/2014/0314/11.jpg

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/users/u163/images/2014/0314/12.jpg

and another analog:

Mar 10, 2014 weekly outlook

As I mentioned last week the market seemed to be tracing out a 7.5-8 month cycle.  This past week seemed to follow that track.  Until the data says otherwise I will project using that.  Here is a longer term projection of this scenario:

Up close view:

GL traders

Mar 3, 2014 weekly outlook - where has the 9 month cycle gone?

The 9 month cycle is around 40 weeks (2 x 20 week cycle.  The actual cycle length according to some sources is 40.68 weeks.  Still many analysis refer to it as a 9 month cycle (2 Wall cycles).  Over the past few months it seems this 9 month cycle has not been there (even though in the past it and the 18 month cycle have been reliable).  Take a look:

So what do we (should we) do when the data fails to align to our expectations?  We examine the data in an attempt to determine what is the best fit for the data.  In doing that we hope out outlook will more closely match actual market activity.  I believe this more closely matches the current market action:

Why the variance from the traditional cycle length?  I am not sure, but FED actions may be having an effect.  I do expect the market will revert to the 20/40 week cycles, but in the meantime will look for 15/30 week cycles.  I advise all to be alert to this possible variance in the cycles.

GL traders