Aug 30 update

Last post (Aug 21) I told you it appeared that we should be at a top.  I see no reason to change that.  I believe we have actually seen the DOW trade down for the month of August during the day today - so it is going to b interesting to see if Aug DOW is an up or down month.

You will sometimes see articles discussing the 15 month business or stock cycle.  We have discussed the Wall cycles (9 in a Kitchin cycle) and the fact they could be grouped in 3 groups of 3.  Also, we have noted the 3rd of a group is normally the weakest.  Now a wall cycle is 20 weeks +/- and 20 week is about 4.7 months (using 30 days as an aveage month). so three Wall cycles (60+/- weeks is 3 x 4.7 months or around 14 months) corresponds approximately to this 15 month cycle.  So I would contend that the so-called 15 month cycle is actually a group of 3 Wall cycles.

If I am right then this 14.1 month cycle is now down (the 3rd of 3 Wall cycles in a group of 3) and will remain so into the 3rd week of November.

Here is the situation graphically:

GL traders. RWM looks like a good way to protect to the downside here.

Aug 21 outlook

So far I have gotten thru August without a hospital stay.  This is the first month since March I have not spent 1-2 weeks of a month in the hospital.  So you could say I am making good progress in my recovery?   Still don't have a lot of energy or stamina as it will take some time and exercise to get that back.

In June I commented as follows:  "Looking at the market it appears Jul/Aug will provide some volatility in a range of about 10% , but no actual large move up or down."   This seems to be a fair description of market action  (less volaility than expected) as it moved sideways with an upside bias.

The first week of June should have marked the bottom of a Wall Cycle (20 weeks) and we should be approaching or near a top of that 20 week cycle.  So I am expecting a pullback soon that should last into mid Oct (maybe into the election if it goes long).  Also, unless it goes longer than expected the Kitchin cycle (42 months - 3.5 years) should be bottoming by year's end (Mar 6 - 2009 + 3 years is Mar 6 2012 + 6 months is Sep 2012).

Here is a visual:

Gl traders.  I will try to post on occasion - health permitting.