Play the swing cycle

The swing cycle that appears to currently dominate is the 33-36 trading days cycle.  This means the current correction should complete in the coming week (33TD cycle - 16+ day leg would complete by Tuesday; a 36TD cycle would complete Thursday 10/04). So if you ae short or holding an inverse such as RWM you will want to watch for an exit in the coming week.... 

After the bottom we should see about 17 TD up into late Oct, then down into the presidential election.  Don't forget - there are other cycles at play that can influence the amplitude of any move by this swing cycle (Which is 1/3 of a Wall cycle).

Here is a visual:

Compare this to the predictions of the Spiral calendar:

http://spiraldates.com/

GL traders.

VIX trend change signal

1) VIX retreated over 50% from last high around 28
2) S&P has now had 3 consecutive down days.

I consider this a trend change signal.

Seems to me the fundamentals are now such that not much in the offing to move the market: 
1) ECB - instituted QE, FED instituted QE, Japan instituted QE.  The sugar high should wear off fairly quickly.
2) Many Euro countries in recession
3) China growth slowing
4) Many emerging countries slowing (Brazil, India)
5) US growth anemic
5) Economic #s continue to be poor

Also technicals seem to be lining up to suggest a top:
1) EW proponents are suggesting a substantial top in the making
2) Spirals suggesting top near
3) Slow Stos suggest a top near
4) VIX suggesting a trend change
5) Cycles suggest a top in the making

These are just some of the markers suggesting a pull back is near.

GL traders

Article on cycles (Jim Curry)

http://www.safehaven.com/article/27044/low-end-four-year-target-hit-brief-correction-due-higher-into-november-election

Might be of interest.  GL traders.

Slow Sto calling for a pull back?

According to Robert McHugh if the Slow Sto stays above 20 for 2.5 months a sell off normally occurs (+/- 2 weeks).

gl traders

Spirals and what they tell us

http://ermanometry.com/articles/log_spirals_in_the_stock_market.php

　
　
HALF SECTION VIEW OF A NAUTILUS SHELL. Successive increments of growth are united by a constant common ratio of expansion. An example of a spiral found in nature... See the above referenced article for more information on stock market cycles and their use in stock pivot point identification.

Below is a rough approximation of the spiral referenced in my last post. We should see a significant top soon (see spiral below).

Hope you find the referenced article as informative as I did.

GL traders

A death spiral??

Based upon the Fibonacci sequence, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34 etc we see an amazing occurence. From the 1932 bottom to 1966 top was 34 years and 1966 to 1987 was 21 years...  subsequently we saw the 2000 top (13 years) and then the 2008 top (8 years). This is rather more than coincidence that every major top since 1932 was identified by following a contracting Fibonacci sequence. There is no indication for how long tops last, but in general, corrections are severe...at least 40-50%.

Five years from 2008 is 2013  suggesting a substantial top in 2013 followed by a 40-50% correction.

Implications for quickly approaching the point of singularity implies severe volatility, so do not take positions where money is required or involve leverage...this could kill you on the downside and if not, the sleepless nights could take a toll. We are just beginning to see a sampling of how volatile things are going to get in the coming years.

 Timing the tops and getting out before sharp declines will be critical for ensuring no loss of capital. Tops will be closer together if the market continues to observe the contracting Fibonacci sequence (2013, 2016, 2018, etc),

In other words a DEATH spiral. Spirals is another subject for another time, but those who have studied spirals often relate then to Fibonacci sequences.....

Aug 30 update

Last post (Aug 21) I told you it appeared that we should be at a top.  I see no reason to change that.  I believe we have actually seen the DOW trade down for the month of August during the day today - so it is going to b interesting to see if Aug DOW is an up or down month.

You will sometimes see articles discussing the 15 month business or stock cycle.  We have discussed the Wall cycles (9 in a Kitchin cycle) and the fact they could be grouped in 3 groups of 3.  Also, we have noted the 3rd of a group is normally the weakest.  Now a wall cycle is 20 weeks +/- and 20 week is about 4.7 months (using 30 days as an aveage month). so three Wall cycles (60+/- weeks is 3 x 4.7 months or around 14 months) corresponds approximately to this 15 month cycle.  So I would contend that the so-called 15 month cycle is actually a group of 3 Wall cycles.

If I am right then this 14.1 month cycle is now down (the 3rd of 3 Wall cycles in a group of 3) and will remain so into the 3rd week of November.

Here is the situation graphically:

GL traders. RWM looks like a good way to protect to the downside here.

Aug 21 outlook

So far I have gotten thru August without a hospital stay.  This is the first month since March I have not spent 1-2 weeks of a month in the hospital.  So you could say I am making good progress in my recovery?   Still don't have a lot of energy or stamina as it will take some time and exercise to get that back.

In June I commented as follows:  "Looking at the market it appears Jul/Aug will provide some volatility in a range of about 10% , but no actual large move up or down."   This seems to be a fair description of market action  (less volaility than expected) as it moved sideways with an upside bias.

The first week of June should have marked the bottom of a Wall Cycle (20 weeks) and we should be approaching or near a top of that 20 week cycle.  So I am expecting a pullback soon that should last into mid Oct (maybe into the election if it goes long).  Also, unless it goes longer than expected the Kitchin cycle (42 months - 3.5 years) should be bottoming by year's end (Mar 6 - 2009 + 3 years is Mar 6 2012 + 6 months is Sep 2012).

Here is a visual:

Gl traders.  I will try to post on occasion - health permitting.

07-17 status

Well, had a pacemaker/defib unit implanted around July 3.  Was supposed to sync the beating of the two chambers and make the heart work better (so was the triple bypass).   SWo was the triple bypass earlier.

I feel OK, blood pressure ok, blood sugar OK, weight holding steady, good appetite.  BUT, there is still a problem of fluid accumulation in the chest.  Since May 15 had to have it drained 3 time (over 3 liters each time).  Now have a tube draining that they put in when they did the pacemaker.  This weekend drained (Friday- Monday) drained almost 2 liters of fluid.

DR says I have a very delicate (iffy I would call it) heart situation.  Don't know if they can do anything else.

This may be my last post.  GL all.

7-8-2012 recovery update

I wish I could tell you that recovery is going as expected and everything is fine.  But that would not be true as I keep hitting speed bumps in my recovery.  So far I have had fluid accumulation in the chest 3 times that had to be drained (over 3 liter each time).  This much fluid in the chest cavity leads to supressed breathing. 

In between I have tried to maintain a schedule of activity to improve my strength and stamina. So the cardio Drs decided I had a heart sychronization problem (left chamber fires off, then the right chamber fires off) .  This  leads to low effieiency of the heart.  In other words I live in a very percarious condition.

On Mon/Tue I had a pacemaker/defib unit implanted along with a drainage tube. In measuring the drainage it seems to be decreasing over the past 3 days.  This could be good news.  Still the heart surgeon says I need to be close to family so they can keep an eye on me as I have a very fragile situation (guess this move happens over the next month).

Looking at the market it eappars Jul/Aug will provide some volatility in a range of about 10% , but no actual large move up or down.  So I have re-established my RWM inverse position to trade on a 5% or greater move down in The Russell.

GL traders.