Monday, September 24, 2012

VIX trend change signal

1) VIX retreated over 50% from last high around 28
2) S&P has now had 3 consecutive down days.

I consider this a trend change signal.

Seems to me the fundamentals are now such that not much in the offing to move the market: 
1) ECB - instituted QE, FED instituted QE, Japan instituted QE.  The sugar high should wear off fairly quickly.
2) Many Euro countries in recession
3) China growth slowing
4) Many emerging countries slowing (Brazil, India)
5) US growth anemic
5) Economic #s continue to be poor

Also technicals seem to be lining up to suggest a top:
1) EW proponents are suggesting a substantial top in the making
2) Spirals suggesting top near
3) Slow Stos suggest a top near
4) VIX suggesting a trend change
5) Cycles suggest a top in the making

These are just some of the markers suggesting a pull back is near.

GL traders


  1. Hello Inlet,

    I hope your feeling better and back into the "swing" of things.

    I read the Jim Curry article. So basically a quick drop (couple weeks??) to 1375-1400'ish followed by a move higher (1550??). Boy, a move past 1500 will really get the talking heads pumping.

    I believe it was Phil Davis's site that wrote that there is a rise in the market in ANTICIPATION of QE, and once QE is announced, a quick pop and then a fall for about 2 weeks or so. So basically, I have been waiting for the fall and finally a decent fall today.

    Do you agree with the 1375-1400 target?? I should have bought more RWM, but at least I have some.

  2. Doc:

    Based on Detrending (DPO) I believe 1350-1375 is the first target area. If we get there then we see how it looks...

  3. Good call Inlet. Big full moon in a few days...

  4. sheeps -

    definitely starting to look like a trend change. we'll see.