Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Aug 21 outlook

So far I have gotten thru August without a hospital stay.  This is the first month since March I have not spent 1-2 weeks of a month in the hospital.  So you could say I am making good progress in my recovery?   Still don't have a lot of energy or stamina as it will take some time and exercise to get that back.

In June I commented as follows:  "Looking at the market it appears Jul/Aug will provide some volatility in a range of about 10% , but no actual large move up or down."   This seems to be a fair description of market action  (less volaility than expected) as it moved sideways with an upside bias.

The first week of June should have marked the bottom of a Wall Cycle (20 weeks) and we should be approaching or near a top of that 20 week cycle.  So I am expecting a pullback soon that should last into mid Oct (maybe into the election if it goes long).  Also, unless it goes longer than expected the Kitchin cycle (42 months - 3.5 years) should be bottoming by year's end (Mar 6 - 2009 + 3 years is Mar 6 2012 + 6 months is Sep 2012).

Here is a visual:
Gl traders.  I will try to post on occasion - health permitting.


  1. Inlet,

    Great to see you back.

    Post when you can.

  2. So glad to see you are feeling a little better! Slow but sure my friend