Sunday, November 24, 2013

Looking for clues

As we follow the cycles we look for other clues (context) as to what the market may do over the next few months.  Saw a chart of G7 industrial output and leading indicators.  Noted the similarity between 2005-07 and 2011-13.  So I placed the 2005-07 results underneath the 2011-13 results so you could observe what I saw. Does this mean we see another 2009?  not necessarily, but then maybe we see that or worse.

Here is the chart - you be the judge:

GL traders

Update 11/26


  1. A major wave year..but not until a major peak in late spring.

    QE-pomo is still enough to over-ride most econ-weakness, and besides, lower oil/commodity prices is a boon to many industries right now.

  2. Inlet Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. I've been catching up on some readings of the market and everyone is seeing a melt up into the end of the year. I believe you are seeing a decline. Looking forward to your update.

    1. c88 - I try to interpret what the cycles are saying. I don't always hit the mark. I think we are due a correction, then possibly a rally in the spring. What we are sure of without reservation is that each day that passes we are one day closer to a major correction and need to be watchful for that.

  3. Permabear - if the past (2005-2009) repeats then we should be near a top with a correction starting (2011-2015).

  4. Hai inlet,How to end this year? Whether we will continue to rally or we should cap the decline? According to your percentage which is greater?

  5. Sandiawan - I believe the charts are suggesting a pullback starts soon (possibly next week) into January. I hesitate to suggest a %, but greater than 50% would be my guess.