Wednesday, May 15, 2013

May - week of 12th (may 15 update)

Longer term cycles show up trend continuing into at least 2nd week of June.  Of course tops in an up trending market are  usually right translated as the up leg is longer in time than down legs (shorter in down trending markets and left translated).  So target date for a significant top is around June 10, but may be later because of translation...  Here is a visual:



Currently the longer cycles (ie Wall cycle) are  trending up, but we have some shorter cycles (ie 34 TD - 1/3 the Wall cycle) is down this week.  So we may get some downside pressure, but it  will be partially offset by the up trending longer cycles.  So be careful.  Here is a visual:


May 15: Shorter cycles continue to be right translated as the trend continues to be up (this is to be expected).  Any pullbacks (counter trend) are shallow and short (to be expected).  So the shorter cycles are about 5 days up and 3-4 days down....  I expect this will continue into June.  Here is a visual:


Was today's midday reversal a short term top (right translated - top expected by Monday?):


May 16 EOD - seems we turned today, about 3 days later than projected top as shorter cycles continue to be right translated (means down leg probably will be short and shallow).  As OPEX ends tomorrow we should not be surprised to see a low by EOD Friday:


4 comments:

  1. As suspected the up pressure of the longer cycles are offsetting any downside pressure of the shorter cycles. Will we get a real blow off top? Possibly, but not yet - most likely in mid to late June (depends on how right translated the longer cycles are).

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  2. Looks like OPEX having an impact...

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  3. Looks like any correction is sideways (so far). Time will tell.

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