Sunday, May 26, 2013

June 2013 outlook

Did we set a top last week (May 20-24) or was it just the first step in making a top.  My longer term outlook for the year suggests one more up thrust.  My guess is it fails to set a higher high completing the topping process the first week of June. Here is my 2013 outlook updated with data thru May 24:


So we set a top the first week of June and sell off the remainder of the month (at least most of the month).  Zooming in and looking at 2 shorter cycles we see that the current pullback is the result of a 12-13TD cycle bottoming.  The turn up by this shorter cycle should help the market to retest the high in 6-7TDs (or so I believe).  Here is a visual:

Longer term look back:



  1. Tue premarket open - looks like a substantial pop at the open which would fit another attempt at new highs.

  2. Phil Davis feels that the Russell 2000 will hit 1000. Presently @ around 984.

  3. Yes looks like they are going for a new high or maybe a lower high but should see a top very shortly.

    Just in regards to your 1st chart which has target 1&2 , is this the target for the first down leg into the end of June. Looks like you are seeing the bigger cycle down into the end of the year, what is your final low price target and at what time do you see this occurring?


  4. Those targets are for the Jun-Jul time frame. Should get some upside in Aug-Sept and down after that. Right now based on my 2013 outlook I would expect a low for the second half of the year mid Dec, but will wait for any later (Sept/Oct) peak to try and set a target.