Sunday, May 19, 2013

May 19 outlook

Evidence suggests the market should continue up next week, but we may see topping action soon (up/down/up/down with minimal upside progress).  We could see a top as early as May 28 (moon phase), but It could be as late as June 7-10 (with any cycle right translation but), to keep it short we should see a top soon.

The RWM (Russell 2000 short ETF) suggests a top by around May 28 as it bottoms.

 SPX on the other hand suggests a top a bit later (first week of June?).

In summary - top between last week of May or first week of June.  Watch your short term trading indicators (for example RSI (3))....

May 20 EOD:

Up, down, up, down.....

Down, up, down?


  1. What is most necessary here is simply the recognition that markets move in cycles, that investment conditions will change over time, and that returns born of euphoria are not easily retained. We need to exercise extreme care.

    I noted we could see up/down, up/down ... as the market set a top. That I believe describes today's market action. I believe Elliott Wavers call this zigzags.

    To us it means the dominant longer cycle is reaching a turning point and the influence of the shorter cycles are starting to show through. Therefore we expect some short symmetrical moves as a top is put in place. This could take a few days (as soon as late May or as late as the first/second week of June).

    Movement in precious metals last night in Asia suggests changes may be near???

  2. Up/down, up/down - this is how tops get formed.

  3. Hi do have a price target on the S&P into the cycle low in July/August?


  4. No target yet, need to see where we top, but I expect a 10% (or more) pullback.

  5. Wow what a day Inlet, it really did look like a blow off then a massive reversal with a nice topping tail. I wonder if the top is in and we see the up down chop before it finally gives way.

  6. Yep, top may be in, if not then we are getting close. Always hard to nail the exact time of a top because tops tend to be left or right translated depending on trend (more so than bottoms).....