Thursday, May 9, 2013

May 2013 outlook update May 09

Updated my yearly outlook chart to include April's data.  Looks like the market is tracking the annual outlook fairly well.  If it continues expect May to be up with a top in early June (start of week 2 in June).

Here is  the updated chart:

Shorter term we have short cycles (23TD and 34TD) topping Thur-Mon May 9-13.   After that expect some weakness, but wait to sell in June because May is too soon. Here is a short term look:


09:45 am EDT - looks like we may be ready for a pause:

03:20 pm EDT - I suggested we should turn as early as Thur 05-09.  Unless we get a turn up the next 40 minutes that is what we are getting.  Here is a visual:


  1. picked up a few shares of RWM under $21 for trading. Probably a day early....

  2. Inlet,

    There were some posters (Elliot Wave guys) that have the top in late May, and then a major bottom around 6/18. So, late May,...early June,...guess we will see. Close enough for me.
    Phil Davis is suspicious that a correction is coming. This melt up has been at lower volumes.
    I keep waiting for the corrrection that never seems to come.

  3. Doc - Saw the EW guys - not sure of their time basis for the top. I posted the 2013 chart in late 2012 or early 2013 showing the June top based on cycle alignment and it appears to still be probable based on data from Jan-Apr.

  4. Doc - also check out the Bradley and geomagnetic predictions for June tops...

  5. Inlet,

    I forgot to write, these were guys in the comment section on the Keystone Speculator site. I think they are private traders that study EW on their own.
    It was several days back and it was associated with a chart that has 22 comments. I am not sure if I can paste it here.

  6. Doctrader - Well, looks like that is consistent with Daneric and some other EWers. But many of them have called major tops 2-3 times already in 2013.

    So, I check a couple of EW oriented sites, but then I do my own thing and at this time I see no reason to modify my view from early in the year. One has to always be aware of whether the data confirms projections and if need be change outlook to better explain the data.

  7. Inlet,

    Just so you know, my time is limited, but I did try studying some EW years ago. It seemed to me that it worked best by trying to explain a market move AFTER it happened. So, I have always questioned its prognosticating ability.

    For me, I try to get the "planets to line up" so to speak. That is, if my reading/research, my charting ability, Phil Davis, etc are all on the same page, then I'm happy and I am comfortable with making some sort of move. And just so you know, your cycle work is one of the planets.

    Thanks for all you do.