Friday, March 2, 2012

03-02-2012 recession ahead

I have noticed that recessions generally start when the economic numbers are  at highs.  Many people tend to project today's numbers into the future - which is why they are surprised when the economy takes a tumble.  ECRI predicted a recession by the second quarter of 2012 back at the end of September.  They have an excellent record in calling recessions.  Now I could show you a lot of charts that claim to predict the future. 

Instead I am going to show you one chart.  It is not some prediction but shows the "data" (not some prediction) and is referred to a coincident indicator.  It is on the verge of falling into an area that normally precedes or coincides a recession.  Here is the chart:

You decide, recession or not.    


  1. Inlet,

    Thanks for all your work.
    I have some RWM too, but probably should have bought more last week.

    1. Doctrader - Thx. I suspect you may still have time to buy more RWM (if you want to). It may take several trading days for the downside to gain momentum.