Friday, March 2, 2012

03-02-2012 outlook

I believe the 20 week Wall cycle has topped.  We could set a marginal new high today, but I believe the odds do not favor that outcome.  That does not mean we immediately fall 100 points on the S&P.  Why?  Because the shorter qtr Wall (about 25TDs is now up as it just bottomed) and that will give us dueling cycles.  I have tried to determine the likely result of this.  Using DPOs for the Wall cycle (about 210 points and the qtr wall cycle (56 points) it appears they should almost precisely offset over the next 12 or so TDs. 

As a result of this dominant cycle pushing down as another pushes up it would imply an increase in volatility.  So there may be increased short term trading opportunities.  Be careful and preserve your capital. 

Here is the SPX and the outlook:

GL traders.  Let's make some money.   


  1. Great calls lately. How many TDs are you expecting the SPX to take in order to fall 100 points?

    1. About 25TDs (toward the end of March/first week of April) there is that potential.

  2. Bought some RWM after it broke above $27 as I stated I would previously. Time to party short style.