Monday, January 16, 2012

the week of Jan 17 2012

I wish I could get a clearer reading on what is happening in the market.  At this time though I find no cycle combinations that seem to explain the market action.  Doesn't mean there isn't an explanation, just means I am unsure of what it is.  January is starting out the year showing strength (same as last year) - so maybe there is a one year cycle in play.  No high level of confidence in that.

Based on my cycle work I believed we would have topped by now (and maybe we did Friday?) and be showing weakness.  It seems we have achieved the levels (or more) one would expect from the amplitude of the DPO.  The CCI seems to be indicating a possible top.  Some other technical indicators like the MFI are also at extremes.

So what would it take to turn the market.  I suppose a bad report from a major company like IBM (the model of consistent performance) which has a new head that decides to do some house cleaning might do the trick.  All we can do is wait and see.




  1. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac 2012: tomorrow (Wed 18th) Dow down big 9 out of last 13. Friday (20th), Dow down big again 10 out of last 13. Lets see.

  2. Inlet,

    The markets may be rising due to the "January Effect".

    Also, I have read that China may ease its "required reserve ratio" and that will be bullish. It is thought that this will occur between 1/23 and 2/8. So, markets may be rising in anticipation of that. Maybe once it happens, it will be a "sell the news event".