Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.

Hi Inlet. I found your blog a few weeks ago. I'am also using "NUMBERS" for swings on the stock. But there is some difference between us because I am using astro numbers. The point is I am a lil bit confused because on the 2.12.2011 you posted a note about day cycles. I am not sure but I was counting the 40 day period and everytime something was missing. I mean days was missing ;) For example the 19.12 - 21 days is the 24.11 - 21 days again it's the 7.11. - 2 it gives us the 5.11 and it's a 40TD cycle. Can U please help me up and explain in some way how You counting this cycles. It would be very nice :) I am gathering my trading plan together and it would be a pity not to have swong cycles in it ;) Please help me out if U can with some message on Your blog or via e mail mateusz.bratek@interia.pl Thanks a lot :)!

Slim Fit - gernerally speaking I talk in terms of Trading Days (TDs) for the shorter swing cycles. For example the 21-22 TD cycle is very common. Some may (in astro terms) refer to it as the "lunar" cycle (29-30 days less 4 weekends is 21-22TDs) or some may refer to it as a monthly cycle (calendar description). I believe we can agree whether it is referred to as a 22TD cycle, lunar cycle, or monthly cycle it is the same cycle.

For longer cycles I generally talk in terms of calendar periods (a 2 month cycle would be about 45 TDs).

Gann liked 90 and eigths of 90s to describe common cycle lengths of shorter duration (1/8 x 90 = 11.25, 1/4 X 90 = 22.5, 3/8 x 90 = 33.75, 1/2 x 90 = 45 etc) giving rise to 11TD cycle, 22TD cycle, 33-34TD cycle, 45TD cycle, etc.

Others use different approaches but many come up with cycles approximating these lengths. But sometimes it gets confusing as to whether someone is talking about calendar days or trading days. For example if someone talks about a 20 week cycle they are probably speaking in calendar terms (in TDs this would be about 100 trading days).

Hope this helps. I had a blog about Oct-Nov 2010 describing some of this and different cycle lengths as described by Gann and Hurst you may want to look up

OK, I am sufficiently confused. What you label as 28TD is about 4 weeks (28 calendar days and 20 +/- TDs) (reference second chart). Look at the weekly bars and count them (4 weekly bars +/-). Could you be mixing apples and oranges?

I may have made a mistake on the first chart and have the last cycle too short (Dect 19 top). Would not be the first time.

OK, I am sufficiently confused. What you label as 28TD is about 4 weeks (28 calendar days and 20 +/- TDs) (reference second chart). Look at the weekly bars and count them (4 weekly bars +/-). Could you be mixing apples and oranges?

I may have made a mistake on the first chart and have the last cycle too short (Dect 19 top). Would not be the first time.

Doctrader - I had previously discussed this cycle combination (I just did not refer to it as the Juglar cycle) in this blog post: http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2011/03/what-cycle-analysts-are-saying-part-4.html

Golly, another cycle--the Juglar Cycle. I'll have to read about it later.

ReplyDeleteMaybe they should rename it the "Jugular Cycle",...it is already colored the appropriate red.

Hi Inlet. I found your blog a few weeks ago. I'am also using "NUMBERS" for swings on the stock. But there is some difference between us because I am using astro numbers. The point is I am a lil bit confused because on the 2.12.2011 you posted a note about day cycles. I am not sure but I was counting the 40 day period and everytime something was missing. I mean days was missing ;) For example the 19.12 - 21 days is the 24.11 - 21 days again it's the 7.11. - 2 it gives us the 5.11 and it's a 40TD cycle. Can U please help me up and explain in some way how You counting this cycles. It would be very nice :) I am gathering my trading plan together and it would be a pity not to have swong cycles in it ;) Please help me out if U can with some message on Your blog or via e mail mateusz.bratek@interia.pl Thanks a lot :)!

ReplyDeleteSlim Fit - gernerally speaking I talk in terms of Trading Days (TDs) for the shorter swing cycles. For example the 21-22 TD cycle is very common. Some may (in astro terms) refer to it as the "lunar" cycle (29-30 days less 4 weekends is 21-22TDs) or some may refer to it as a monthly cycle (calendar description). I believe we can agree whether it is referred to as a 22TD cycle, lunar cycle, or monthly cycle it is the same cycle.

ReplyDeleteFor longer cycles I generally talk in terms of calendar periods (a 2 month cycle would be about 45 TDs).

Gann liked 90 and eigths of 90s to describe common cycle lengths of shorter duration (1/8 x 90 = 11.25, 1/4 X 90 = 22.5, 3/8 x 90 = 33.75, 1/2 x 90 = 45 etc) giving rise to 11TD cycle, 22TD cycle, 33-34TD cycle, 45TD cycle, etc.

Others use different approaches but many come up with cycles approximating these lengths. But sometimes it gets confusing as to whether someone is talking about calendar days or trading days. For example if someone talks about a 20 week cycle they are probably speaking in calendar terms (in TDs this would be about 100 trading days).

Hope this helps. I had a blog about Oct-Nov 2010 describing some of this and different cycle lengths as described by Gann and Hurst you may want to look up

Inlet please go to the link below.

Deletehttp://screenshooter.net/9904936/yonplam

and the second one

Deletehttp://screenshooter.net/9904936/hncmaav

OK, I am sufficiently confused. What you label as 28TD is about 4 weeks (28 calendar days and 20 +/- TDs) (reference second chart). Look at the weekly bars and count them (4 weekly bars +/-). Could you be mixing apples and oranges?

DeleteI may have made a mistake on the first chart and have the last cycle too short (Dect 19 top). Would not be the first time.

OK, I am sufficiently confused. What you label as 28TD is about 4 weeks (28 calendar days and 20 +/- TDs) (reference second chart). Look at the weekly bars and count them (4 weekly bars +/-). Could you be mixing apples and oranges?

DeleteI may have made a mistake on the first chart and have the last cycle too short (Dect 19 top). Would not be the first time.

Doctrader - I had previously discussed this cycle combination (I just did not refer to it as the Juglar cycle) in this blog post: http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2011/03/what-cycle-analysts-are-saying-part-4.html

ReplyDelete