Thursday, January 5, 2012

Always question everything.

I like David Knox Barker and his work.  I have repeatedly talked about the Kitchin and Wall cycles.  The one thing that bothers me about the Wall cycle (and his interpretation) is the variability he claims it has.  That can lead to a lot of personal bias and interpretation.    He gives a "typical" range of a Wall cycle of 8-32 weeks (that is a lot of range and leads a lot of room for personal biases/interpretation).

Now I believe we should interpret the data not insert our preconceived personal biases into our analysis.  So I have been thinking about this interpretation for a while and whether it is useful in interpreting the data.  I have come to believe it is of limited usefulness.  So I have looked at the data (several times) to see if there is an alternative interpretation to better explain the data.  Terry Landry of T-Theory  seems to favor a 15 week cycle.  There are 12 - 15 week (12 x 15 - 180 weeks) periods in a 42 month (Kitchin - 3 years 6 months or 3 X 52 + 26 = 182 weeks) cycle.  Here is a chart showing these 15 week cycles:

Seems to me this interpretation offers a more acceptable level of variability in cycle length than the 20 Week Wall cycle.  It still points to a low in mid January.  Always question everything/everybody and focus on whether the market data supports the interpretation.  Your feedback can help keep me on track....  


  1. Early in the week, it seemed that most of the news out there stated the market will fall. Yet, it grinds higher.
    Today, a positive jobs number was reported, so perhaps we start with a gap up.
    I haven't picked a short position yet.
    It's January, and perhaps new money is entering the system--the so called "January Effect".
    I'm staying patient & looking for an opportunity.

  2. David Knox Barker is interesting and its cycle counts

  3. Doc - picked up a few shares of RWM with a target of around $32.50