http://www.safehaven.com/article/23308/the-collapse-of-wall-cycle-6
This and the 22TD cycle being down over the next 2 weeks should provide market weakness into early December. Here is my version of the Wall cycles:
Showing posts with label Wall cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wall cycle. Show all posts
Saturday, November 19, 2011
11-18-2011 Wall cycle (20 weeks) headed down
The Wall cycle should bottom by or before Christmas it appears:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/23308/the-collapse-of-wall-cycle-6
This and the 22TD cycle being down over the next 2 weeks should provide market weakness into early December. Here is my version of the Wall cycles:
As the Wall cycle is now down this in part explains the apparent dominance of the 22TD cycle.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/23308/the-collapse-of-wall-cycle-6
This and the 22TD cycle being down over the next 2 weeks should provide market weakness into early December. Here is my version of the Wall cycles:
Friday, May 6, 2011
comments and the week ahead 05-09-2011
This past week played out much as expected as it topped and turned down. I had stated I expected at least a 20 point pullback (we got more). A lower low Thursday was a bit of a surprise, still by the end of the week the market had stated to recover as the short cycles turned up.
Next week the 11TD cycle will be up most of the week. This cycle has about 31 points of amplitude so it should result in an up week. Of course the 22TD cycle has turned down, so the upside potential is less than 31 points (I would estimate 20-25 points). I expect we should see 1360ish on the S&P during the week, but I doubt we test recent highs. Since the shorter cycles will be up/down during the week I do not expect a lot of overall contribution (or subtraction) for the week even though they may have 1-2 day impacts during the week. By the end of the week the 11TD cycle should top. Setting up the next week of 5-16 (more on this later).
Here is a visual:
As I stated the 11TD cycle should top by the end of next week. That means the week of 05-16 we have the 11TD cycle and the 22TD cycle down. So that means the week of May 16 should be down, but just as the 22 day cycle bottoms we have a Wall cycle (20 weeks) topping and it will be down into the first week of July. But, more important in my opinion we have the one year cycle reaching the point in its down leg (Jan-Jul) where it should start dominating to the downside. So I believe by mid-May we will have a setup for a 6 week or so pullback in the market. If you have gotten complacent - WAKE UP - things are reaching a critical point of change.
How big a change. Here is a visual showing the potential amplitude of the 1 year and 20 wk Wall cycle into the first week of July when both should bottom:
As you can see the potential downside is considerable (around 280 points down on the S&P). So this is a correction to avoid!!! or play to the short side. And that traders is the story behind sell in May and go away.
No this is not the big one, that starts later in the year (Oct-Nov) as the 2 year cycle and Kitchin cycle reach the point of maximum downside movement. Of course there is the 10 year, 30 year, 60 year, 120 year cycle bottoms to follow that, but we will have time to address those at a later date.
GL traders. Do your own analysis
Next week the 11TD cycle will be up most of the week. This cycle has about 31 points of amplitude so it should result in an up week. Of course the 22TD cycle has turned down, so the upside potential is less than 31 points (I would estimate 20-25 points). I expect we should see 1360ish on the S&P during the week, but I doubt we test recent highs. Since the shorter cycles will be up/down during the week I do not expect a lot of overall contribution (or subtraction) for the week even though they may have 1-2 day impacts during the week. By the end of the week the 11TD cycle should top. Setting up the next week of 5-16 (more on this later).
Here is a visual:
How big a change. Here is a visual showing the potential amplitude of the 1 year and 20 wk Wall cycle into the first week of July when both should bottom:
As you can see the potential downside is considerable (around 280 points down on the S&P). So this is a correction to avoid!!! or play to the short side. And that traders is the story behind sell in May and go away.
No this is not the big one, that starts later in the year (Oct-Nov) as the 2 year cycle and Kitchin cycle reach the point of maximum downside movement. Of course there is the 10 year, 30 year, 60 year, 120 year cycle bottoms to follow that, but we will have time to address those at a later date.
GL traders. Do your own analysis
Saturday, March 26, 2011
The week ahead 03-28
The 33 day cycle dominated last week. I expect that to continue next week as that cycle is up for another 10 or so trading days. Of course you have the Wall cycle (20 weeks) down so that limits the upside somewhat. You may have some limitations from a shorter cycle (the 11 say cycle down. Still the 33 day cycle is dominating as it did in the sell off earlier in the month.
Based on this - I would expect the market to be up for the week. I believe we could achieve 1330 (S&P) on the upside during the week. Possible a bit more the following week (1335-1340). I am doubtful about new S&P highs because the Wall cycle is down now whereas it was up when we achieved the old highs.
Here is a visual outlook:
GL traders. Do your own analysis
I will try and provide an outlook for the month of April later.
Based on this - I would expect the market to be up for the week. I believe we could achieve 1330 (S&P) on the upside during the week. Possible a bit more the following week (1335-1340). I am doubtful about new S&P highs because the Wall cycle is down now whereas it was up when we achieved the old highs.
Here is a visual outlook:
I will try and provide an outlook for the month of April later.
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