Friday, July 29, 2016

Outlook for week of Aug 1, 2016

DOW down for the past week, SP500 up a very small amount for the past week, NAZ performed best (up the most) for the week.  Overall the markets were sideways for the week with only DOW showing the expected downside bias.

Next week we have cycles up, down, topping and bottoming.  Makes for a somewhat hard to interpret combination.  Appears market may be down to start the week as 2 shorter cycles bottom and up the last half of the week once the bottoming happens.  For the week expecting a sideways week with more movement down and up than the past 2 weeks,

GL traders,

Gold cycles do not correlate to the general market (like SPX).  Longer cycles are 1 year and 6 month cycles.  Appears 6 month cycle dominant.

6 month cycle up along with the 6 week cycle. 3 month cycle and 3 week cycles down. Given positive TSI I suspect an upside bias.

UPDATE 8,  3, 2016:  Other ways of looking for buy/sell  points:
1:  Multiple embedded envelops and intersection of upper channel lines (sell) and lower channel lines (buy).
2: DPO - Detrended Price Option shows when price gets too high (sell) or too low (buy)



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  2. Hi Inlet, thanks for the update.

    by the way, do you do cycle analysis on gold or GDX as well? i reckon its overbought recently...


    1. Jeff - added chart for $gold

    2. thanks a lot. this is very informative.

    3. another round of rate-hike expectation in sept, agree?

  3. Hi inlet. Do u think cycles bottom in nov. Then go up in 2017

  4. Rose, that seems to be from my interpretation of the cycles. Of course that does not consider longer (multi year) cycles which many believe will dominate longer term...

  5. Thanks. It almost looks. Gold is also comin down end of nov

  6. Blow Off Top S&P Now?? (5 Aug Turndate?)

  7. HOw you count cycles ? Are y using still same periods ? And where could i find general information about cycles please ? Thank you.

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