Saturday, June 18, 2016

Future outlook week of June 20, 2016

 I said last week:  "According to my cycle analysis appears next week (and week of June 20) should see a sell off.".    That describes the week, except somewhat less downside than expected.

This week should continue down as several cycles are set to bottom.  The question is how severe will the sell down be  (BRexit during the week and Fed Chair appearing before congress I believe).  Could be a scary sell off (or not) depending on events.  The technical setup calls for a sizable pull back before month's end....


GL traders

Update 06/24:






19 comments:

  1. I think the elasticity of your cycles needs to be taken into account. I think the current cycle will stretch into mid/late July. However, All Time New Highs likely to occur before.

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    1. I also believe that until the end of July you can think of ups and downs but at reasonable levels of around 5% less or more ... then down to August as the 'last year ....

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  2. Any chance that last week was the cycle low?

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  3. Last week, next week or this week. Based on past history it should be this week. The Wall cycle is 100 trading days (20 weeks or 140.+ calendar days). I wonder if the 40 week (many suggest there is a 9 month - 39 week cycle or 2X 20 weeks). I wonder if I Need to shift that cycle 20 weeks - low near election day).

    Hope these comments help. I try to offer my best interpretation, but there is always room for error. If you have reason to suggest revision share it.....

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    1. The cycles for the SP500 are much shorter than the nominal Hurst model. The 9 year cycle is 7 years long. I had two scenarios 7 year cycle low in Q1.2016 or around October 2016.
      Few weeks after the February low it was clear that we have major low. This move is too strong and it is hanging too long around ATH which is not normal if you expect major low in 3-4 months.
      So February 2016 was 7 year cycle low. Since than we have one 20 week cycle with low in May and length 13 weeks - again the cycles are shorter for SP500 average 14-16 weeks. Now the second 20 week cycle is running with expected low in September. The correct M pattern is between this two 20 week cycles with tops in April and June for dominant 40 week cycle.
      We will see a sell off in the next few weeks and it will look like we have a 20 week cycle with length 21-22 weeks, but I think this not the right cyclical count. I think this will be just the 10 week cycle with length 7-9 weeks from the second 20 week cycle.

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    2. Krasi's blog: http://practicaltechnicalanalysis.blogspot.com/

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  4. Is this all there is to BRexit sell off? Bradley chart indicates a trend change July 5, so the bottoming could extend over 5-6 trading days in that case. Tops/bottoms generally happen over more than 1 day.

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    1. grazie per i tuoi post e le tue immagini che parlano molto chiaro anche per chi come me non capisce il linguaggio tecnico, mi piacerebbe conoscere tua view per i prossimi giorni ...

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    2. Google translation: thanks for your posts and your pictures also clear that much speak for people like me who do not understand the technical language, I'd like to know your view for the next days ...

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    3. I try to give an outlook for the coming week over the week end.

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    4. thank you so much for your time, your also wonder if you can give me an email or ask for a reference to collaboration ....
      I find it very interesting siderografo who posted and try to understand the message because it contains not clear to me ... it seems to herald a descent after July 5?

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  5. The sidergraph shows turn points (not direction of turn as I understand how it functions). I am no expert on the sidergraph....

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  6. Over the decades it has been observed that the siderograph can NOT (!!!) reliably predict the direction but only turning points in the financial markets (stocks, bonds, bonds, commodities) within a time window of +/- 4 calendar days (in a few cases up to +/- 7 days). Inversions (i.e. a high instead of a low and vice versa) are quite common.

    Also, it is not a timing tool for short-term trends but rather for intermediate-term to longer-term trends because the turning window is rather wide.

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